当你看到这种宣传滴时候，你只需要做一件事情

马上卖掉手上滴债券，这条街上滴鲨鱼个个吃人不吐骨头。 信他你就完鸟。

这是我在三月底对花街大幅调升对苹果价格预测时滴评论，事实就是现在这样

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2821122.html

The Real Bond King Says "Buy"

By RANDALL W. FORSYTH | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

Long-time Treasury bull Kessler says record-low yields could fall even further and send bond prices higher.

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There are Bond Kings and then there is the real Bond King. And the latter has been steadfastly bullish on Treasuries when they yielded 7%, 6%, 5%, 4%, 3% and 2%. And even with the benchmark 10-year note yield hitting a record low of 1.53% Thursday, he says they're still a buy.

Robert Kessler, head of the eponymously named Denver-based Kessler Cos., may rightly be dubbed the reigning Bond King for his steadfast -- and fiercely independent -- view that Treasury securities were the investment of choice against the overwhelming opinion of the crowd that asserted they offered no value as their yields continued to fall.

Even the widely heralded Bill Gross of Pimco stumbled last year when Treasury yields fell in defiance of his call that they would rise. And Dan Fuss, whose prowess across the corporate-bond and global-debt markets is unequaled, has been wrong-footed in his view that the federal deficit would eventually but inevitably lift Treasury yields.

This also is a view heard in investment committees of institutions of all sorts, from pensions to endowments, that Treasuries at low yields offer no potential return given their low yields. It was expressed most vehemently by The Black Swan author Nicholas Nassem Taleb, who declared in a wrong-way call two years ago worthy of Meredith Whitney that "every single human being" should sell Treasuries short.

Those who have followed that advice through the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury exchange-traded fund  (ticker: TBT) have suffered 53.42% negative total return in the past year and a negative annual return of 33.51% per annum over the past three years through May 30, according to fund tracker Morningstar.

By contrast, a conservative investor in the iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury ETF  (IEF) -- representing the sensible middle of the Treasury curve -- would have reaped a 15.11% total return for the past 12 months and 9.22% per annum for the past three years. More aggressive types who went for the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF are looking at a 36.47% one-year return and 15.03% per annum for the past three years. And those who swung for the fences with the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index ETF  (EDV), among the most aggressive Treasury funds around, scored a 61.13% one-year return and 21.24% annually for the past three years, again per Morningstar data.

That's all in the past. Kessler, whose clients who consist of high net-worth individuals and global institutions, sees no reason Treasury yields should not fall further, generating robust total returns. Moreover, he sees the current low level of yields as a clear warning sign to stock bulls.

In a wide-ranging telephone interview, Kessler sounded themes on which he has expounded before in previous conversations. Most particularly, Treasury yields are headed where he had expected all along -- well before Greece and the rest of Europe began to exert downward pressure on prices of risky assets and yields on risk-free assets such as Treasuries and German bunds.

Simply put, Kessler says Treasury yields are the product of the Federal Reserve's policy stance -- which has been to peg the overnight federal-funds rate at virtually zero -- and inflation, which is nowhere in sight with the retreat in Commodity Research Bureau index and key prices such as copper.

Based on historical norms, the 10-year Treasury note would trade at 75-100 basis points (0.75 to one percentage point) above the fed-funds rate target. So a 1.20% 10-year T-note would be in line with past cycles. So, too, would a 30-year bond yielding 1.50%-1.60%, well below 2.66% currently.

But these times are different from history with deleveraging throughout the world economy. That means shrinking balance sheets as assets are shed and, Kessler contends, inevitable deflation. If anything, that would point to even lower yields.

From a trading standpoint, Kessler likes Treasury five-year notes at 0.67% or seven-year notes at 1.03%. How can you make money with those yields? Banks can lever Treasuries (conservatively) at 20 to 1, borrowing at nearly nil to produce 15% total returns.

It's a casino, to be sure. But the house -- the Fed -- is paying everybody to play and win. That's the reality, Kessler says, and those who reject reality inevitably lose at investing.

The other reality is what Treasury yields in the 1% range indicate about the economy and profits, he continues. Kessler says everybody advises buying dividend-paying Blue Chip stocks with high yields such as Johnson & Johnson  (JNJ), whose payout yields 3.90%.

But the Treasury market has been an unerring indicator where the economy and profits are headed, Kessler asserts. What good is a 4% dividend yield if stocks can fall 30%? That is the parlous state indicated by the depressed levels of Treasury yields, he says.

Kessler says he will get interested in stocks when the VIX -- the index measuring volatility of options on the Standard & Poor's 500 -- soars to panic levels of 50-80, from the mid-20s level currently. By then, the S&P 500's yield is apt to be closer to 6%, a level consistent historically with market bottoms.

Whether one agrees with Kessler, it would seem prudent to take the exact opposite tack espoused by Taleb. Every human being ought to own some Treasuries -- to hedge risks in a diversified portfolio. The opinion expressed here previously is that Treasuries are effectively put options -- that is, insurance -- for risk assets.

Bond King Kessler contends that, as long as the Fed is pegging the funds rate at zero, deflation trumps inflation and deleveraging remains the dominant theme, interest rates will fall still further. So far, those who have ignored or have actively opposed his message are poorer for it.