今天接触到的4本书，说的都是一个事儿。也许是我过分敏感。
1. The Forth Turning-1997:
http://www.angelfire.com/or/truthfinder/fourthturning.html
The Fourth Turning is a book about human social cycles in America written by two respected generational historians, They make a very convincing case for a disaster and era of economic depression and crisis, possibly total war, in the coming years. Like the Kondratieff wave, based on price behaviour over time, they are essentially interpreting the "Long Cycle" through characteristics of generational aspects.
Although in the book they expect this era of crisis-- the fourth turning-- 2005 to 2025, It seems clear with present trends it is just around the corner. We are (and will be) witnessing a massive Global Realignment that could be the precursor for what they (and I) envision: World War Three.
2.《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》1996
「假设在2010年，南中国海石油资源的开发进展迅速，大部分区域在中国保护之下，而越南控制的一 些区域则由美国公司开发。中国因拥有新的兵力投放能力而信心大增，宣布它将建立对整个南中国海的控制。越南开始抵抗，中越之间随之发生海战。」-- 1996年
如果南海问题的冲突演变为以中美两大国为核心的东西方文明之间的战争，必定是双输的结果，很有可能意味着美国霸权的终结，而得利者一定是那些没有卷入或卷入战争程度较低的第三方。
3. Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny
History tells us that there are dangers. There will be shocks and surprises, and economic difficulties. And the greatest danger of all is that America will try to do too much -- overextend itself to the point where freedom and democracy themselves might appear to be in danger.
4. A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons for Life and Investing
If you are ever in a country that descends into war, I suggest you leave until it is over. Truth is always the first casualty of war, so you need to get your distance. Your mother and I explored moving to Shanghai or Spain, and spending time in Punta del Este, Uruguay, or Cochabamba, Bolivia.
a few centuries now, our family have served in the military, but you should not. ... My wish, as your father, is that you become a world citizen by your own will and decision.
