if it's 100% random, then all the effort trying to outperform is pointless... only in very few occasions (to me, maybe once or twice a year, if that), the odds seem to strongly favor 1 side or the other.
when I say strongly, I'd say 70% certainty.. it doesn't seem too high, but that means winning $2.3 for every $1 loss.. which is exceptional.
anybody can do 10% over random (60% certainty, day in day out), means he wins $1.5 for every $1.... he'd be the king of wall street if he can consistently do that.
even 5% over random (55% win vs. 45%) is still very good over the long term.
Now you see why trading is so hard.. even a good 55% win rate has lots of uncertainty that puts tremendous pressure on the trader.
That's why I always say forget trying to outperform the index.... as a landlord you'd prolly have much higher odds than 70% to collect rent.
even getting to the 55-60% range will take years of hard work, IF the trader practise the right way.... which is a very big IF... vast majority look at news, macro analysis type of thing, garbage in garbage out...others look at moving averages, redline crossing the blue line, again garbage in garbage out... these people will forever be stuck at 50%, as random traders.
How to get to the winning side? very simple - the 10,000 hour stare. If you stare at charts that long, and spend that much time to understand who are the participants, and what they do... then you'd prolly succeed, like in any other profession.
so I say just forget about it.... I have about 2000 hours under my belt... so I admit that I am not a very good trader who can pull money out for a living.... but 2000 hours is enough to get out of the randomness stage.
Anybody saying this thing is easy - Ignorance is Bliss.
trying to pull money out of zero sum game, is always harder than from something with positive expectancy - like collecting rents.
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