ATP is about to enter pay zone at MC 941,4 in the next few days.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=te&bn=1612&tid=144029&mid=144029&tof=8&frt=2#144029

This is very relevant to the company's value. If they find a larger pay zone than expected, as happened in the previous well, it means a big boost in reserves and NPV.

Even Alman (JPM analyst) says ATP has a big upside potential depending on improved reserves, oil price and production. He calculates a very conservative NPV (he accounts the Proved reserves almost exclusively) and it result barely higher than the Debt, so the equity value results very low but highly leverage to the reserves upside and oil price. In the same report he values ATP at 13 using oil at 90, and gives a value of 21 using oil price at 100 a barrel.

To see how the drilling results affect the share price, just look at what happened in the previous well. Check the chart in the first days of Sep 09... something was brewing... then in Sep 9th they announced the great results.... the rest is evident...

所有跟帖： 

• thanks, i am holding this stock -hz82000- ♀ (0 bytes) () 05/12/2011 postreply 15:35:54