Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to release its first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings report on Wednesday, May 20, after the market close. Analysts are projecting record revenue of $78.84 billion (a nearly 80% year-over-year increase) and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.76.
Key Expectations
- The "Beat-and-Raise" Hurdle: Nvidia has historically beaten Wall Street consensus estimates in 21 of the last 23 quarters. However, because the stock has run up nearly 20% since the start of the year and recently touched all-time highs, an earnings beat alone might not be enough to push the stock higher.
- Forward Guidance: Investors will be heavily focused on CEO Jensen Huang's commentary regarding data center growth, Hyperscaler capital expenditure (capex) forecasts, and the trajectory of their chips in China.
- Market Volatility: Options markets are pricing in an expected post-earnings stock move of roughly 8.6%.
Historical Post-Earnings Patterns
- The Immediate Reaction: While Nvidia beats earnings frequently, a blockbuster report doesn't always translate to a green day the following trading session. In recent quarters, heightened expectations have sometimes led to immediate sell-offs (often referred to as "sell the news") or muted reactions.
- Longer-Term Performance: Historical data shows that patience tends to pay off for NVDA investors. Historically, the stock trades positively roughly 55% of the time after a week, but that win rate jumps to 78% over one quarter and 84% over a full year.
You can track the live stock reaction and access the full investor presentation directly on the Nvidia Investor Relations page. To review the compiled analyst projections before the print, check out the Visible Alpha platform.
