Historical Performance and Statistics
- Performance in Rate Hikes: Despite initial volatility, markets often perform well during rate hike cycles. Research indicates that during rate increase periods, the S&P 500 has historically seen positive annualized returns, such as 7.0% from Dec 2015–Dec 2018.
- Long-term Data: According to, S&P 500 returns during rate hike cycles showed an average increase of 62.9% between 2004 and 2019, showing that high rates do not automatically guarantee a crash.
- Rate Environment Comparison: Average monthly S&P 500 returns are 1.05% when interest rates are above their median, compared to 0.78% when below, suggesting that "high" rates are not inherently damaging, but rather the rate of change that matters most. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
