Market theory is psycology based.

Psycology has multi-dimensional variables, that is why it has no accurate mathmatical formula to simulate it.

Whoever tried to in the past to simulate market behaviour fails often, such of those in LTCM.

I do not think people will ever understand the stock market, one of many reasons is stock market manipulation by insiders, including but not limited to: FED, Wall Street, Hedge funds, corporations, etc.

For example, how do you explain this bear market rally that little correction happened in last year? Obviously it is not based on economic fundamentals, nor it is based on liquidity flood since a huge portion of the liquidity created is not participating in market.

If you exam at past year's market trade sessions, stock market often rises at last hour of trading hour. Except manipulation by big money, I do not know what to call it.

Take it easy.

所有跟帖： 

• sometimes stock markets or commodity markets just act -asd_123- ♀ (226 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 16:07:30

• 回复：Market theory is psycology based. -blocked- ♂ (90 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 16:10:46

• 这种quantitative trading一样也是赌probablity,只不过比 -asd_123- ♀ (85 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 16:17:58

• 回复：这种quantitative trading一样也是赌probablity,只不过比 -blocked- ♂ (62 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 16:21:19

• 很多基金用这个或automatic TA做high frequency trading, -asd_123- ♀ (121 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 16:24:44

• has to use Quants to manipulate through big money -槑- ♀ (192 bytes) () 05/12/2010 postreply 06:06:47