At equlibrium, the stock market may be a markovian process.

But the market seldom stays at equilibrium. Therefore stock market is fundamentally difference from gambling. One can do some prediction after some very careful analysis. For example, fundamental analysis is useful in figuring out the overrall direction of the market on a large time scale.

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• And for TA, sometimes it uses mean reverting to predict -asd_123- ♀ (436 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 10:32:34

• the deviation from the ture value IS a markovian process. -不开窍- ♂ (105 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 10:33:02

• All is about possibility, just different ways to state that -asd_123- ♀ (0 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 10:33:55

• The direction is definatly predictable, not a random walk. -不开窍- ♂ (29 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 10:41:18

• then why all traders, no matter based on FA, TA or Quantitative -asd_123- ♀ (163 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 10:43:37

• traders are working for others, not for themselves. -不开窍- ♂ (147 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 10:50:50

• But an individual's investment time span could be limited, -asd_123- ♀ (214 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 10:53:21

• Yes, when we get older, we get out of stock hradually. -不开窍- ♂ (0 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 11:57:55

• Get out from stock, then where would you put your money in? -asd_123- ♀ (81 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 15:56:46

• Similar t o 2nd law of thermadynamic, one direction only. -不开窍- ♂ (0 bytes) () 05/11/2010 postreply 10:53:25