Investing.com -- The “Donroe Doctrine” is being discussed by investors as a potential framework for expanded U.S. influence over oil-producing countries, with possible implications for oil services stocks, according to a recent note from Bernstein.
Bernstein uses the term following comments by President Donald Trump and frames it as a modern parallel to the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. The original doctrine, articulated by the U.S. President James Monroe, set out two principles: U.S. neutrality toward European conflicts and opposition to European colonization in the Western Hemisphere.
Bernstein cites historian Henry Kissinger’s description of the doctrine, writing that “Monroe’s idea of American affairs was expansive indeed,” and adds that this “may also be the case for President Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctrine.’”
The report focuses on Venezuela and Iran, where oil production remains well below historical levels. Venezuelan output is estimated at 0.9 million barrels per day in 2025, down from 2.6 million barrels per day in 2016.
Iranian production is estimated at 3.5 million barrels per day in 2025, compared with about 6 million barrels per day in 1974. Bernstein says restoring production in both countries would require sustained investment.
Rejuvenating Venezuelan and Iranian oil output could require about $40 billion per year in additional exploration and production spending over the next 10 years, made up of about $27 billion annually for Venezuela and $13 billion for Iran.
As a result, Bernstein estimates that global E&P capital expenditure could remain at about $600 billion per year through 2035, compared with about $560 billion in 2025.
The report outlines how this outlook could affect oil services stocks. Venezuela and Iran together account for about 5% of Schlumberger’s revenue and less than 2% of revenue across Bernstein’s entire oil services coverage.
Bernstein says it does not expect any impact on industry revenue in 2026 but highlights longer-term implications if investment in those countries increases.
Bernstein notes that investors have been cautious toward the oil services sector over the past four years, though it has observed growing investor interest over the past three months.
The brokerage says the sector could benefit from what it describes as “potential - albeit still highly uncertain - new Venezuelan and Iranian prospects.”
Within its coverage, Bernstein identifies Schlumberger, Tenaris and Vallourec as companies that meet its criteria of U.S. exposure, oilfield services focus and onshore activity.
The report also addresses oil price implications. Bernstein says that beyond a possible short-term uptick, concerns about oversupply could return in the medium term.
It cites a current oversupply of about 3.5 million barrels per day, alongside the possibility of future production increases from Venezuela and Iran.
Over the very long term, Bernstein says that abundant and cheap oil has historically supported global economic growth, with oil demand continuing to grow modestly despite declining oil intensity.
Bernstein says oil production in Venezuela and Iran is currently at “extremely low levels,” which it describes as suggesting potential upside for parts of the oil services sector, while noting that the political and economic outlook in both countries remains unclear.
During the meeting with largest U.S. oil companies on Friday, President Donald Trump said he had “sort of” reached a deal on Venezuela with their executives during a meeting at the White House on Tuesday, adding that the companies would be investing “hundreds of billions of dollars.”
