Most Likely Offering Price: $144–$146 Range
Based on the latest trading behavior and offering structure, the final secondary offering price is most likely to be set between $144 and $146 tonight. Here's why:
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Market Price Anchoring: CRCL dropped to ~$144 after the offering announcement, suggesting that institutional buyers are anchoring bids near this level.
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Discount Calibration: A price in this range represents a ~52% discount from the $299 high, but still a >360% gain from the $31 IPO, balancing insider exit with public appetite.
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Offering Structure: With 80% of the shares coming from existing holders, the price needs to be attractive enough to absorb insider selling without triggering a broader selloff.
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Valuation Sensitivity: At $144, CRCL’s market cap remains elevated, but more defensible given its 53% revenue growth and USDC dominance.
Strategic Implications
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If the price is set below $144, it may signal weak demand or insider urgency.
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If it’s above $146, it would imply stronger-than-expected institutional interest.
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A $144–$146 set price would likely stabilize short-term sentiment and allow for orderly absorption of new shares.
