Federal Reserve Rate Cut Probabilities: rate cut expectations have declined notably this week. Investors are pricing in only a 39.2% probability of a September rate cut, 37.4% in October and 57.8% in December.
My estimate of the short-term neutral rate is 3.5% vs. the Fed's estimate of 3%. This information implies a long & difficult road to the neutral rate.
The new tariff regime announced last night will not impact the US economy until later this year and mostly next. Note how the rate cut probabilities in 2026 have declined with only the June 2026 meeting being priced in.
上述数据和文章是在bad non-farm payroll 出来之前
As of August 6, 2026, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2026 is high.
According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, which is widely used to gauge market expectations, there is a 92.2% probability of a rate cut at the September 15-16, 2026, FOMC meeting. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 7.8%, while a rate hike is seen as a 0% possibility.
It's important to note that these probabilities are based on the pricing of fed funds futures contracts and can change as new economic data is released and market conditions evolve.
