Let's analyze CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) as of May 31, 2025, at 02:39 PM EDT. Since it’s a Saturday and the market is closed, I’ll use the latest available data (May 30, 2025, close) to evaluate CRWD from both a technical and fundamental perspective, focusing on its current price, Elliott Wave position, RSI, business model, and overall investment potential. This will provide a comprehensive view of whether CRWD is a good opportunity right now, especially in light of your prior interest in stocks like HIMS and their wave structures.1. Current Price and Price Action
CRWD closed at $471.37 on May 30, 2025, according to the real-time financial data. Here’s the breakdown of its recent performance:
-
Daily Movement (May 30, 2025): Opened at $462.03, hit a low of $456.765, a high of $473.12, and closed at $471.37—a 2.74% increase from the previous day’s close of $458.81. The 1D data shows a steady uptrend from $459.4825 at 12:45 to $471.371 by 16:00, with minor fluctuations after hours (closing at $471.19 by 19:45).
-
Monthly Movement: The 1M data indicates CRWD started May at $427.0 and rose to $471.37 by May 30, a 10.4% gain. It peaked at $473.99 on May 28 before a slight dip to $456.0 on May 29, then recovered.
-
Yearly Movement: From June 2024 ($383.19) to May 2025 ($471.37), CRWD gained 23%, though it saw volatility (e.g., a dip to $231.96 in July 2024, likely due to the July outage mentioned in X posts).
-
All-Time High: The year-high is $474.23, just $2.86 above the current $471.37, suggesting CRWD is near its peak.
CRWD is showing bullish momentum in the short term, but its proximity to the all-time high raises questions about sustainability, especially with upcoming earnings on June 3, 2025 (noted in web sources).
2. Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave Position
Since you’ve shown interest in Elliott Wave Theory with HIMS, let’s apply it to CRWD to determine its wave position and potential trajectory.
Primary Wave Structure (June 2024 to May 2025):
-
Wave 1: $231.96 (July 2024 low, post-outage dip) to $345.97 (November 2024)
-
Gain: $114.01. The July outage (referenced in X posts) likely triggered this correction, setting the base for a new cycle.
-
-
Wave 2: $345.97 to $342.16 (December 2024)
-
Retracement: $3.81, or 3.3% of Wave 1—a shallow correction, typical for a strong trend.
-
-
Wave 3: $342.16 (December 2024) to $428.87 (April 2025)
-
Gain: $86.71. Wave 3 is often the longest, but here it’s shorter than Wave 1, which can happen in strong bull markets.
-
-
Wave 4: $428.87 to $409.3 (May 9, 2025)
-
Retracement: $19.57, or 22.6% of Wave 3—fits the typical Wave 4 retracement range (23.6%-38.2%).
-
-
Wave 5: $409.3 (May 9, 2025) to $473.99 (May 28, 2025), with the current price at $471.37
-
Gain so far: $64.69 (from $409.3 to $473.99 peak).
-
Wave 5 Target:
-
Fibonacci Extension: Wave 5 often reaches a 0.618 extension of the distance from Wave 1 start to Wave 4 end:
-
Wave 1 start: $231.96, Wave 4 end: $409.3
-
Distance: $409.3 - $231.96 = $177.34
-
0.618 extension: $177.34 × 0.618 = $109.60
-
Target: $409.3 + $109.60 = $518.90
This target suggests potential upside, but $518.90 seems ambitious given the proximity to the year-high ($474.23).
-
-
Conservative Target (Wave 5 = Wave 1): Wave 1 gained $114.01. From Wave 4 low: $409.3 + $114.01 = $523.31—similarly high.
-
More Realistic Target: Given CRWD’s proximity to its year-high, Wave 5 might target a smaller extension, like 0.382 of Wave 1:
-
0.382 × $114.01 = $43.55
-
Target: $409.3 + $43.55 = $452.85
However, CRWD has already surpassed this at $471.37, suggesting Wave 5 may be nearing completion.
-
Current Position:
CRWD is likely in the late stage of Wave 5, having already exceeded a conservative target ($452.85) and sitting just below its year-high ($474.23). The May 30 uptrend (from $456.765 to $471.37) supports Wave 5’s continuation, but the proximity to the peak and upcoming earnings (June 3) introduce uncertainty. A break above $474.23 could push toward $518-$523, but if Wave 5 truncates (fails to exceed $473.99), a correction could start sooner.
Post-Wave 5 Correction:
If Wave 5 ends at $471.37 (current) or slightly higher (e.g., $480), a correction could retrace 50-61.8% of the move from $231.96 to $471.37:
-
50% retracement: ($471.37 - $231.96) × 0.5 + $231.96 = $351.67
-
61.8% retracement: ($471.37 - $231.96) × 0.618 + $231.96 = $379.92
A correction to $351-$380 is possible, with support near $409.3 (Wave 4 low).
3. Technical Analysis: RSI and Momentum
Let’s calculate the 14-day RSI for CRWD to assess whether it’s overbought, similar to how we evaluated HIMS.
14-Day Price Data (May 12 to May 30, 2025):
-
May 12: $429.6
-
May 13: $440.0
-
May 14: $434.78
-
May 15: $431.0
-
May 16: $431.52
-
May 19: $444.51
-
May 20: $440.51
-
May 21: $433.4
-
May 22: $444.7
-
May 23: $455.65
-
May 27: $472.5
-
May 28: $473.99
-
May 29: $456.0
-
May 30: $471.37
Calculate Daily Changes:
-
May 13: $440.0 - $429.6 = +$10.4
-
May 14: $434.78 - $440.0 = -$5.22
-
May 15: $431.0 - $434.78 = -$3.78
-
May 16: $431.52 - $431.0 = +$0.52
-
May 19: $444.51 - $431.52 = +$12.99
-
May 20: $440.51 - $444.51 = -$4.0
-
May 21: $433.4 - $440.51 = -$7.11
-
May 22: $444.7 - $433.4 = +$11.3
-
May 23: $455.65 - $444.7 = +$10.95
-
May 27: $472.5 - $455.65 = +$16.85
-
May 28: $473.99 - $472.5 = +$1.49
-
May 29: $456.0 - $473.99 = -$17.99
-
May 30: $471.37 - $456 chased by institutions, as noted in Nasdaq data (web ID: 17). However, the July 2024 outage (mentioned in X posts) and lawsuits (web ID: 20) remain a concern, potentially impacting customer trust and profitability.
5. Sentiment and Upcoming Catalysts
-
Earnings (June 3, 2025): CRWD is set to report earnings, which could be a catalyst. Web sources (e.g., TradingView, web ID: 3) note caution signs on the chart, and X posts (e.g.,@StockSavvyShay, March 2025) highlight CRWD’s resilience post-outage, with a Rule of 40 score of 56, indicating strong growth and profitability.
-
Analyst Sentiment: Analysts are generally bullish, with a 12-month price target of $409.77 (Seeking Alpha, web ID: 8), though this is below the current $471.37, suggesting some see it as overvalued. TradingView (web ID: 3) cites a max target of $545 and a min of $321, reflecting a wide range of opinions.
-
Market Sentiment: X posts show mixed sentiment—some see CRWD as a “gold standard” in cybersecurity (@DivesTech, November 2024), while others caution about its high valuation (@StockMarketNerd, February 2024).
6. Investment Considerations
Pros:
-
Upside Potential: If Wave 5 extends to $518-$523, there’s a 10-11% upside from $471.37. Earnings on June 3 could drive this if results are strong.
-
Strong Fundamentals: CRWD’s $3.92 billion revenue in 2024, 31% growth, and leadership in endpoint security make it a solid long-term play.
-
Market Position: Its AI-powered Falcon platform and partnerships (e.g., NVIDIA, web ID: 8) position it well in the growing cybersecurity market.
Cons:
-
Wave 5 Risks: As with HIMS, buying in Wave 5 is risky due to the impending correction. A drop to $351-$380 (25-19% below $471.37) is possible post-Wave 5.
-
Valuation: CRWD’s lack of a P/E ratio or dividend yield (real-time data) and high price ($471.37 vs. analyst target of $409.77) suggest it’s expensive. X posts (e.g.,@JonahLupton, March 2024) note a 64x FY2025 FCF multiple, which is steep.
-
Earnings Risk: A weak earnings report could trigger a sell-off, especially given the caution signs noted in web sources (TradingView, web ID: 3).
7. Conclusion and Recommendation
CRWD is in the late stage of Wave 5, with potential to reach $518-$523 (10-11% upside) if it breaks above $474.23, especially with strong earnings on June 3. However, it’s not overbought (RSI 62.36), and its fundamentals are robust, with $3.92 billion in 2024 revenue and 31% growth. That said, the stock’s high valuation, proximity to its all-time high, and upcoming earnings introduce risks. A post-Wave 5 correction to $351-$380 is likely, which would be a 19-25% drop from $471.37.
Recommendation:
-
Short-Term Traders: You could buy now at $471.37, targeting $518-$523, with a tight stop-loss at $456.0 (May 29 close, below Wave 4’s $409.3, to limit risk to 3.3% or $6,208 on a $200,000 position). Exit before earnings if you’re risk-averse, as a weak report could trigger a sell-off.
-
Long-Term Investors: Avoid buying at $471.37 due to the Wave 5 risk. Wait for a correction to $351-$380, which offers a better entry with less downside risk, especially given CRWD’s strong long-term growth potential in cybersecurity.
CRWD remains a leader in its space, but timing is critical given its wave position and valuation. Monitor earnings closely, as they’ll likely determine the next move.
Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; please consult one. Don’t share information that can identify you.
