阴谋造成的结果

本帖于 2010-02-23 16:27:07 时间, 由普通用户 BayFamily 编辑

搞”阴谋”的人或政府永远也不会承认一件事: Their every action has consequences.
Let’s look some simple data to see the results of ”阴谋” by US government in last 10-20 years.
Let’s see US first:

  • 10-Year Job Growth Vanishes

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  • Health Care and Government jobs explode

  • Big government grows, in the mean time, private sector jobs in US are vanishing.
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  • Federal Employees wage trend

  • Government pays their employee too generous.
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  • Total Sovereign or Public Sector Debt

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  • US Trade Balance

  • 冰冻三尺非一日之寒
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  • Diminishing Returns

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    Let’s see what happened to emerging market in last 20 years:
  • Brazilian Exports to US and China

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  • China Exports to Emerging Markets and to G7

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  • Crude Oil Demand

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  • Monthly Motor Vehicles Sold

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  • Semiconductor Sales to US+Europe and Asia Pacific

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  • Non-Gold International Reserve: Emerging vs Advanced Countries

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    I would also use one simple example to describe the consequences of US government intervention (”阴谋”). I think most of you remember $1 gas around 1998-2000, congress passed a bill to give incentive to people who buys SUV. That is the start of the boom of our SUV and Pickup Trucks. The result after 10 years: GM goes bankrupt. Today, government did it again (“Cash for Clunkers”), I don’t know what is the consequence yet, but we will see that in 10 years.
    Overall, I think Emerging countries central banks should write US Fed and government a “THANK YOU” note. To thank them for the boom of last 20 years. FED can control liquidity, but they cannot control where these liquidity flow.
    当我们仍然沉浸在阴谋中, 沉浸在对他国的批评中, 不如反过来看看自己. 有因才有果. 阴谋阻挡不了历史的车轮. We can slide the pie whatever we want, but we cannot control the consequences. Just like a human being, we all have to be responsible to our own behavior.
    Something he said is absolutely right: Power is shifting from private sector to US government. Is this a good thing or bad thing? Will this trend bring us prosperity in the future? Unless you work for US government, your job future isn’t so bright (don’t criticize China for cheap labor, look our tax code, regulations, health care reforms…). Unless you live in DC, your local housing market isn’t looking good.
    The current recovery is not on main street at all (look at the percentage increase of people who start to live on food stamps since 2008). Wall street can celebrate as much as they can for their 阴谋, US citizen should wake up and do something.

    Once again: 阴谋阻挡不了历史的车轮.

    For you investment, my suggestion is that you should keep your assets as safe as possible. If government can give you everything, it also can take everything away from you easily. 推崇阴谋的人免不了最终自食其果.

    Source of Charts (www.thechartstore.com)

    所有跟帖: 

    阴谋是阴谋。结果是结果。阴谋也有成功,有失败。你这是历史宿命论。 -蒙得- 给 蒙得 发送悄悄话 蒙得 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 09:06:39

    ding. thanks for sharing. -729418- 给 729418 发送悄悄话 729418 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 09:35:01

    very good fundamental analysis, very convincing. -longtermInvestor- 给 longtermInvestor 发送悄悄话 longtermInvestor 的博客首页 (41 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 09:41:21

    回复:阴谋造成的结果 -33772211- 给 33772211 发送悄悄话 (357 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 10:15:20

    谢谢分享! -sxdc1205- 给 sxdc1205 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 10:16:09

    Very good analysis and good data. But why so angry? -kabab- 给 kabab 发送悄悄话 (697 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 10:29:20

    I feel he is angry at US gov., not MIAT -hetero- 给 hetero 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 11:16:37

    we all love Miat -zengjp- 给 zengjp 发送悄悄话 zengjp 的博客首页 (111 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 11:18:04

    I hope the anger of Americans will lead to reform. -kabab- 给 kabab 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 11:27:01

    呵呵,阴谋论的supporter会说,这些正是阴谋的过程, -pediatrician2- 给 pediatrician2 发送悄悄话 pediatrician2 的博客首页 (94 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 10:55:07

    I don't need to spend time. -zengjp- 给 zengjp 发送悄悄话 zengjp 的博客首页 (34 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 11:17:09

    这就是globalization的结果:肥了全球的资本家, -dividend_growth- 给 dividend_growth 发送悄悄话 dividend_growth 的博客首页 (62 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 11:21:56

    所以O8逼人民币升值 -dividend_growth- 给 dividend_growth 发送悄悄话 dividend_growth 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 12:11:02

    现在的问题是,中国是不是更大一个house of cards? -dividend_growth- 给 dividend_growth 发送悄悄话 dividend_growth 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 11:26:37

    英国的昨天就是美国的明天 -没意思说过去- 给 没意思说过去 发送悄悄话 没意思说过去 的博客首页 (1893 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 11:47:30

    没多少可比性 -拍砖- 给 拍砖 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 13:57:34

    很有可比性,都是制造业凋零,产业空洞,只有动嘴巴的行业还在硬撑着 -没意思说过去- 给 没意思说过去 发送悄悄话 没意思说过去 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 02/23/2010 postreply 14:41:00

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