我想问美国长期国债的风险

本帖于 2025-04-13 10:56:09 时间, 由普通用户 RomaVacation 编辑

Some people are talking about some long term treasury lost 1/2 of face value. Is that normal since they were bought/aucitoned during Covid years when the interest was really low?

Is there concern interest could go up to say 8%-10% in a few years? 10 year or 30 years treasury bond interest around 4-5% now. I thought the concern now is recession. If so, Fed would cut interest then. 

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2020:

  • In January 2020 (pre-pandemic declarations), the 10-year yield was around 1.8%
  • As COVID-19 concerns intensified in February-March 2020, there was a massive flight to safety
  • On March 9, 2020, the yield briefly dropped below 0.5% for the first time in history
  • The 10-year yield hit its all-time low of approximately 0.52% in August 2020
  • By the end of 2020, rates had recovered slightly to around 0.9-1.0%

2021:

  • Rates began climbing as vaccine rollouts progressed and economic recovery expectations grew
  • By March 2021, the 10-year yield had risen to approximately 1.7%

 

所有跟帖: 

赤字会越来越高,发债越来越多,越来越没人买 -dujyy262- 给 dujyy262 发送悄悄话 (218 bytes) () 04/13/2025 postreply 10:41:19

what is best place to invest? -RomaVacation- 给 RomaVacation 发送悄悄话 (298 bytes) () 04/13/2025 postreply 10:53:37

对内加速贬值,囤货,黄金,长期这个趋势不变,就要象伏虎一样 -dujyy262- 给 dujyy262 发送悄悄话 (215 bytes) () 04/13/2025 postreply 11:18:04

The Bond Market’s Rout Is Bad News for the U.S. Economy -Olive_2- 给 Olive_2 发送悄悄话 Olive_2 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 04/13/2025 postreply 10:51:55

这个问题太重要了。我认为不理解长债是不能安心退休的 -春天的草地- 给 春天的草地 发送悄悄话 春天的草地 的博客首页 (1650 bytes) () 04/13/2025 postreply 11:37:34

长期国债非常重要。但没有人知道未来的走向 -未知- 给 未知 发送悄悄话 未知 的博客首页 (171 bytes) () 04/13/2025 postreply 12:25:49

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