转：Jevons’ Paradox（杰文斯悖论），其核心观点是：当某种资源的使用变得更加高效时，人们往往不会减少对该资源的消耗，反而会因为成本降低而增加使用量。
主要内容：
1. 历史背景：
• 1865年，英国经济学家 威廉·杰文斯（William Jevons） 观察到，随着蒸汽机变得更加高效，人们原本以为煤炭的使用会减少，但实际上煤炭消耗量反而激增。
2. Jevons 悖论的机制：
• 更高效的煤炭使用使煤炭更便宜，从而促使更多行业采用煤炭，导致消费量上升，而不是下降。
• 这一现象也适用于能源、技术和其他资源。
3. 现实例子（汽车）：
• 由于汽车变得更加节能，燃油成本下降，使得驾驶变得更加便宜和普及。
• 结果，人们开车更多，行驶更远，甚至购买第二辆车，从而提高了整体燃油消耗。
• 公路扩建进一步促进了车辆使用，最终增加了整体燃油消耗，而不是减少。
4. 工业应用（钢铁与石油）：
• 安德鲁·卡内基（Andrew Carnegie）和约翰·D·洛克菲勒（John D. Rockefeller）利用更高效的钢铁和石油生产技术，并没有减少需求，反而 推动了工业快速扩张。
5. AI 相关预测：
• DeepSeek 的 AI 模型，认为 更高效的计算并不会减少 AI 相关的支出，反而会促使更多公司扩大 AI 基础设施的投资，类似于杰文斯悖论的逻辑——更高效带来更大的总需求。
总结：
Jevons’ Paradox 说明，技术进步和更高的效率通常不会减少资源使用，反而可能促进更广泛的应用，从而 增加总消耗。
Here is the original English text
Carnegie & Rockefeller Proved It
In 1865, British economist William Jevons noticed something surprising. As steam engines became more efficient and used less coal, people thought coal use would go down.
But the opposite happened—coal consumption skyrocketed!
Why? Because making coal-powered machines more efficient made coal cheaper and easier to use, so more industries started using it. Instead of saving coal, people used it even more.
This idea is called Jevons’ Paradox—when something becomes more efficient, demand for it often goes up, not down. The same pattern happens with energy, technology, and resources even today!
Here is a real-life example:
(Illustration: “Jevons’ Paradox – Fuel efficiency gains tend to increase, not decrease, fuel use.)
These new cars are so efficient everyone’s driving everywhere these days.�
When cars became more fuel-efficient, the cost per mile dropped, making driving cheaper and more accessible. As a result, people drove more, took longer trips, and commuted farther, often choosing cars over public transport.
Lower fuel costs also made car ownership more affordable, leading to more purchases—families bought second vehicles, and businesses expanded transportation fleets, further increasing gasoline consumption.
With more cars on the road, highways expanded, encouraging even more driving. Instead of saving gas, fuel efficiency made driving easier, ultimately increasing overall fuel use—just as Jevons’ Paradox predicts.
In fact, two of the wealthiest men of the early 20th century, Andrew Carnegie and John D. Rockefeller, also benefited from Jevons’ Paradox.
By making steel and oil production more efficient and lowering costs, they didn’t reduce demand—they dramatically increased it, fueling rapid industrial expansion.
Why the Boom is Just Beginning
Here is how I see it: DeepSeek's AI model, designed to do more with less computing power, wont cut AI spendings and it will drive it even higher as more companies scale up their AI infrastructure.
