2025-02-02 2pm 收到的Tom Lee 的FUND newsletter
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Can Nvidia Recover From Last Week?The S&P 500 finished last week down 1.00%. Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee described that as “a pretty solid result,” considering the disruptive news coming from China’s DeepSeek on Monday. The startup announced a cutting-edge, high-performing AI model that was purportedly developed and trained at significantly lower cost, using less-advanced, lower-powered chips. Many in Silicon Valley find these claims credible, but regardless of their accuracy, DeepSeek’s claims called into question the thesis for AI spending and investment, sending markets in a panic. Perhaps the most visible evidence of that panic was Nvidia, whose shares fell 17% on Monday – its ninth-worst single-day decline ever. But as Lee reminded us, “AI remains a multidecade story, and Nvidia is still the leading company in the story of AI. In terms of developing the best chips, it continues to be far ahead of anyone else.” Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton noted despite the turbulence on Monday in the markets, the advance-decline ratio was, in his view, “fine.” “In fact,” he added, “the 10-day ratio of the advancing stocks to declines spiked to the highest levels we’ve seen in quite some time. To me, that’s actually a very good sign for the stock market overall, despite some of this short term sort of skittishness we’re seeing.” Lee remains constructive for the year on equities. “This week, and this month, have seen successful tests of the ‘resolve of the bulls,'” he told us. For him, this has implications for the rest of the year. “This is the ‘January barometer.’ As is often said, ‘as January goes so goes the year.'” Since 1950, stocks have notched January gains 45 times. The median full-year returns for stocks in those years is 19%, with an 89% win ratio. The 2025 January barometer (S&P 500 rose 1.65% in the first month of 2025) thus strengthens his constructive base-case outlook for the rest of 2025. |
