可以这样考虑策略

本帖于 2025-01-28 13:38:49 时间, 由版主 三心三意 编辑

 If NVDA already had his top, then the wave 5 would have completed on 1/7 (see the red count V??? in chart). In this case, what we are seeing now is a B wave bounce, and 0.618 is likely the high of this B wave bounce could get to

However, if yesterday's event is a non-event, then we simply move wave iv to yesterday's low, and we are now starting a new 5 wave uptrend. However, even under this scenario, the wave 1 of this uptrend would also see a retrace at some point. It is hard to predict where this wave 1 ends, but given that blue 2 will eventually happen anyway, targetting 132-136 seems to be a good area

Net-net, 132-136 could be a good place to write cc. If we are in blue route, you can always roll up you cover cc in case blue 1 runs higher than what this chart indicates, and then cover it when blue 2 happens.

These are normal conditions. But NVDA is nothing but normal, there is no way to tell if it will for sure rise to 132-136 area. I also marked 0.382 which is minimal area it has to get to in order for us to consider this as a bounce.

所有跟帖: 

我挺喜欢你这种结构性的看法 -cnrhm2017- 给 cnrhm2017 发送悄悄话 cnrhm2017 的博客首页 (166 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:34:39

Fibonacci is the most reliable indicator -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (219 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:37:59

我想还是上了128.5后再卖吧,这样底分型出现,大基金就会跟进,我卖OTM利润高点,同时不会丢失股份 -cnrhm2017- 给 cnrhm2017 发送悄悄话 cnrhm2017 的博客首页 (155 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:43:20

Sure。 关健点是, 即使你判段错了(它走蓝线), 它也“必然”会有一个2号蓝线回调,到那时你还可以close CC -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:45:33

按照FA来看,它大概率走篮线,就是震荡向上,但是还要等花姐具体对DS的解读,估计是周五? -cnrhm2017- 给 cnrhm2017 发送悄悄话 cnrhm2017 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:48:52

MSFT, Meta, AWS, and Google 财报后见分晓 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:51:15

-成功的兔- 给 成功的兔 发送悄悄话 (138 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:45:13

well,I have more than enough NVDA:) -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (348 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:49:59

明白了,非常感谢。我似是而非的地方太多了 -成功的兔- 给 成功的兔 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:54:41

图中的点位只是参考。关健是用什么样的策略 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:53:48

加一句,NVDA很妖, 所以它会不会一定去0.618很难说。这就要看个人的风险系数了 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:40:51

Great strategy. Any good roll strategy if cc strike price r? -vitmin8- 给 vitmin8 发送悄悄话 (90 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 11:29:47

opst is the expert on this, but roll up should be simple. -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (186 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 11:38:10

Got it. Thanks! @opst has great ideas as well. -vitmin8- 给 vitmin8 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 11:47:43

haha, not expert. just learned lessons in hard way :( -opst- 给 opst 发送悄悄话 (326 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 15:15:52

多谢昨天你的advice,还好没卖。我可能到时候减仓一些,毕竟这个风险还是有点大的。 -aloevera- 给 aloevera 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 11:45:55

都怪该死的IBD, LOL -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 12:13:11

是啊,还是要经验啊。要具体情况具体分析。今年真的太难了。 -aloevera- 给 aloevera 发送悄悄话 (167 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 13:20:49

请您先登陆,再发跟帖!