麻你, 关于早些Hedge的问题 ( 不好意思,为了省时间我用了英文)

本帖于 2024-12-19 18:59:12 时间, 由普通用户 三心三意 编辑

Hedging is a complex topic, nearly impossible to cover all its nuances in a forum. People hedge for various reasons, and there isn’t a universally “correct” approach —it ultimately depends on your own goals and risk tolerance.

For me, hedging serves two primary purposes:

  1. To mitigate losses in core positions during a market downturn.
  2. To provide the confidence to hold core positions instead of selling shares.

Of these, the second goal is more important to me. My investment style focuses on identifying companies with long-term growth potential and holding through market ups and downs. However, human emotions often lead to impulsive decisions (e.g., selling shares like PLTR when it feels overpriced at $50). Hedging works for me as a safeguard against these emotional reactions

One common hedging method is using put options, though there are other strategies available. To reduce the cost of buying puts, sometimes, put spread could be used. An example is the recent QQQ trade with a 25 point put spread with a cost of $4–$5 per share. This translates to a 1% premium to protect against a 25-point drop in QQQ (say, from 540 to 515). For a hypothetical portfolio of $1M in QQQ, the cost of the premium would be $10K. If QQQ continues to drop below 515, the put spread can be rolled lower to a new spread (e.g., 515/490). Also, you dont have to protect the entire porfolio, you could, for instance, only cover 3/4 of the position, which would also reduce the premium cost. 

In a rare case you're not familiar with puts or put spreads, you could look up online. ChatGPT offers detailed explanations to help understand these concepts.

The timing of purchasing a hedge is important. Randomly buying put hedges can unnecessarily increase the cost basis of your shares. I think a good understanding of TA, particularly in analyzing market trends, is essential for effectively implementing a hedging strategy. I try to focus the timing of hedge when there are strong signals suggesting the market is overextended and at risk of a correction. For instance, this applied to QQQ at 530–540, PLTR at 70-80, or as Tesla getting close to 500 (I have shared detailed analysis about these price range before). The TA foundation for me in identifyinf market trend is mainly based on Elliott Wave Theory (it’s too complex to dive into details of that here) but there are many others TA tools people use

I’ve been on the wrong side of hedging trades many times. However, even with a 50/50 success rate, hedging can be profitable overall. When wrong, the loss is limited to the premium paid. When correct, the downside protection can be substantial. By coupling hedging with strong technical analysis, you can potentially improve that 50/50 chance to a slight more favorable odds. By "profit," I don’t mean protecting 100% of the portfolio. Instead, the benefit lies in reducing potential drawdowns and avoiding the need to sell shares (which would incur taxes). 

As mentioned earlier, this last thing, the confidence to hold core positions and avoid the need to sell shares is the biggest benefit of hedging. When I feel tempted to sell shares, my first thought is, "Why not hedge instead?" If I’m correct, I gain some downside protection. If I’m wrong, I’ve merely paid a small premium while retaining the opportunity to benefit from future gains (e.g., holding PLTR from $50 to $80 instead of selling prematurely at $50). This, by the way, is the entire raitonal behind the mindset of being prepared for a market top but not attempting to picking a top and selling shares. Keep in mind, the possibility for you to being wrong on hedge trade is a: stock goes up which is a good thing overall, or b: stock stays flat which is not so good as you waste premium but, hey, take it as a good overall outcome as that means your main porfolio is untouched. Again, good TA indicators can help in getting better odds at those timing.

I would say if market fluctuations is not a concern for you, and you’re not interested in taking advantge of large trend reversals, then hedging might not be necessary.

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

 

 

所有跟帖: 

Wow! Thank you! It is really involved and requires one to -越挫越勇2- 给 越挫越勇2 发送悄悄话 (77 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:05:45

如果是大仓位,还是要花钱买工具 -越王剑- 给 越王剑 发送悄悄话 越王剑 的博客首页 (942 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:18:23

越王说到咱心里了。我们需要有AI炒股软件。和你一样appreciate三心。:-) -越挫越勇2- 给 越挫越勇2 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:21:11

是的。 期权还是比较复杂的,要看volatility, delata, etc. 在这一两句说不清。TA非常关健 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (63 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:22:08

心里关我觉得是最重要的。像昨天的大跌,完全没有保护需要很强的心里抗压 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:30:33

Indeed. I had to exercise a lot of self discipline to -越挫越勇2- 给 越挫越勇2 发送悄悄话 (120 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:39:39

BTW, here is a strategy that is "always better" than selling -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (1132 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 20:11:07

I get it. But it really blows my mind. You are really a Pro -越挫越勇2- 给 越挫越勇2 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 20:15:19

谢谢哥。要记在小本本上去学。Ignorance is a bliss. Sigh... -越挫越勇2- 给 越挫越勇2 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 20:18:43

-越王剑- 给 越王剑 发送悄悄话 越王剑 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:09:17

先顶,再找google 翻译成中文! -Tianyazi- 给 Tianyazi 发送悄悄话 Tianyazi 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:12:46

在写博士论文啊?! -Tianyazi- 给 Tianyazi 发送悄悄话 Tianyazi 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:30:37

No pain no gain. You can lead the horse to the water but -越挫越勇2- 给 越挫越勇2 发送悄悄话 (43 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:41:44

你的hedge买多远的put or put spread? -start2020- 给 start2020 发送悄悄话 start2020 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:31:58

看情况。想QQQ这种大盘我这次买的是明年一月。 但TSLA买的是2 weeks -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (148 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:41:22

明年一月9号的吗? -start2020- 给 start2020 发送悄悄话 start2020 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:44:25

QQQ? 一批1/10, 一批1/24 -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:49:38

谢谢。我直接买的put。没有加短腿 -start2020- 给 start2020 发送悄悄话 start2020 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:59:36

If do buy spread, you can also close any 1 leg first -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 21:21:01

如果我比较肯定跌势,就买单退。不确定就用calendar,等确定后买回短腿或roll成debt spread -start2020- 给 start2020 发送悄悄话 start2020 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 22:01:40

QQQ走完这波A浪,在B浪反弹时还有一次机会加Put -三心三意- 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 22:23:50

谢谢! 一直在跟你的帖学习, 难得这么详细的解释,珍惜 -wwalice- 给 wwalice 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:34:30

谢谢分享!今天另我感到困惑的问题找到了解答 -这样子- 给 这样子 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 19:59:04

感谢分享!如此专业的帖子应该置顶啊 -随风19- 给 随风19 发送悄悄话 随风19 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 20:02:58

应该一直置顶 -越挫越勇2- 给 越挫越勇2 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 20:08:41

+100 -*江南雨*- 给 *江南雨* 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 20:55:39

太厉害了,俺看不懂也点赞!哈哈 -米奇的厨房- 给 米奇的厨房 发送悄悄话 米奇的厨房 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 20:14:44

+100 -越挫越勇2- 给 越挫越勇2 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 20:28:45

能够理解和运用得如此熟练,佩服! -Xiaoyutou- 给 Xiaoyutou 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 20:45:05

谢谢,谢谢无私奉献 !! 解释了许多疑惑点,真是位好导师! -*江南雨*- 给 *江南雨* 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 21:00:00

谢谢分享! -catfish1988- 给 catfish1988 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 21:12:47

谢谢分享! -云雾山- 给 云雾山 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 22:07:25

非常非常感谢 -麻你- 给 麻你 发送悄悄话 麻你 的博客首页 (941 bytes) () 12/19/2024 postreply 22:09:56

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