昨晚仔细看了一遍AVGO财报。现在我給它2025年底前的估值是270-300

来源: 三心三意 于 2024-12-13 11:29:11 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (799 bytes)
本帖于 2024-12-13 13:20:21 时间, 由普通用户 三心三意 编辑

有AVGO的千万不要因为今天大涨就卖掉。现在想的应该是Buy on Dip。

AVGO 2025 EPS 是6.2， 2026 EPS 是7.3。 But I am expecting wall street to revise these estimate up in next few weeks due to "significantly accelerated XPU outlook" --- CEO is now forecasting 60B to 90B XPU market by 2027.  AVGO  现在全年的XPU revenue 也不过是12B

I expect the above EPS to be adjusted by 10% uplift at minimal, which gives us 6.8 and 8 respectively.

If we apply a moderate PE of 35, we have $238 (which is roughly where AVGO is traded today) for end of 2024, and $280 for end of 2025.

More importantly, their 2027 business will be even stronger, so wall street will look at this as the next growth story in AI chip.

所有跟帖： 

• Risk: market sell-off + hyperscaler cutback customer chips -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 11:32:21

• 你会算估值？ 太厉害了。能帮NVDA算一下吗？ -QQQ2074- ♂ 给 QQQ2074 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 11:33:50

• NVDA 我发了无数次了， 保守估值160-180 -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 11:42:24

• 那应该买点？ -米奇的厨房- ♂ 给 米奇的厨房 发送悄悄话 米奇的厨房 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 11:45:02

• you need to decide. I am only offering my view -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 11:47:03

• 280是2025年底吧. -aloevera- ♀ 给 aloevera 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 11:36:20

• 非常感谢你的干货，如果2027的估值 才 270，那么3年涨 $45（20%）也不是很高的回报哦，是不是我没理解对？ -Austin8- ♀ 给 Austin8 发送悄悄话 (303 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 13:17:30

• it is typo, should be end of 2025 -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 13:19:43

• That's much better and makes sense -Austin8- ♀ 给 Austin8 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 15:42:33

• 60-90B is market size annually, and AVGO is clear leader -三心三意- ♂ 给 三心三意 发送悄悄话 (609 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 13:25:40

• 太感谢三心啦，说的非常好 -Austin8- ♀ 给 Austin8 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 15:30:04

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