To answer these questions, the authors break down the headline inflation number into two categories: core inflation and deviations from the core inflation number. Core inflation is the level of slack or tightness in the labor market. Deviations from the core inflation number are the large changes in the price of a good or service in a particular industry. These deviations can also be unexpected inflation shocks to the headline inflation figure. These shocks can then lead to a pass-through inflation increase to core inflation.
As the labor market tightened during 2021 and 2022, core inflation rose as the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment increased. This ratio is used to measure wage pressures that then pass through to the prices for goods and services. As workers bargain for better pay, firms begin to increase prices. So, from this research, the authors find that three main components explain the rise in inflation since 2020: volatility of energy prices, backlogs of work orders for goods and service caused by supply chain issues due to COVID-19, and price changes in the auto-related industries.
