过去的15年只是一个”massive QE + Deficit Spending" cycle 的前半程而已

and the cycle is still on-going. If we start counting from 2008 GFC, we are at the end of easing cycle and the 2nd half of the same cycle just got started. I say it will take another 10 yrs to see the full impact of massive Fed balance sheet unwinding as well as the impact of massive increase in Federal debt level.

Yet for many investors, the 1/2 cycle which lasted 15 yrs were the ENTIRE life span for stock  market investment. human beings are known to project personal immediate past experience into distant future. and human beings also tend to attribute personal sucess to personal skills, and personal failure to bad luck. For equity investment, luck, good or bad, is frequently far more likely than skills in determing the outcome

entry point determines a big part of your investment outcome. it is easy to use 10-, 20- or even 50-yr avg return for projection. 

1 first simple mean return is subject to "volatility drag". for the minimum use LONG term CAGR; (data from yahoo finance historical price)

2 can one sit tight thru 2000-2002? if you held thru it, you only lost 80%. So congrats! You still have 20% Left and it took more than a decade to recover the loss from 2000 high. If you BTDF, you would have been entirely wiped out and would NOT participate in the bounce and recovery. it is one thing to talk about what you will do. it is entirely a differnt thing to sit through an 80% DD. 20% is the max I can sit without questioning my investment thesis and even my personal merits.

 

3 equity mkt, tech in particular, is MORE expensive today in terms of valution multiples even tho the index is below ATH. why? riskfree rate much higher. So stocks are NOT cheaper. It is more expensive. To expect past return, you need another 15-year QE and massive fiscal deficit spending. The Q is can we afford it?

 

Hindsight is 20/20. So the million dollar Q finally: does this look like i bottom; ii peak; iii decent pricing in your eyes?

所有跟帖： 

• 刚给您给居士的跟帖点赞，正想建议您单开一帖～谢谢分享。 -陈默- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 05:45:39

• 我相信他投资成绩，非常棒！就是提醒大家一下 -njrookie- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 05:46:29

• 我也相信他的回报率，因为和我401 K里面的基金接近 -yangyang08- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 05:48:33

• 您的补充很好，很多知识点。居士迄今的投资成绩很亮眼，也很可信。工作稳定的双职工家庭， -陈默- ♀ (911 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 05:55:37

• 是的，我2000年都归零了，收入还没他高，现在都差不多了 -CatcherInTheRye- ♂ (153 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:17:38

• 归零？我有一笔最早的IRA， 2003年， 从3万开始， 选的保守基金， 到过5.3万。 低过2.8万， 现在11万 -螺丝螺帽- ♀ (59 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:43:39

• 你这个也很牛得投资！感谢分享！ -bobpainting- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 09:11:37

• 喜欢你的笔名，没读过这本书，希望你能讲讲感想。 -人言可畏- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:47:08

• 非常理性的分析， 学习了 -samma1- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:06:18

• 写的好 -ZeroSumGame- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:16:34

• 最近15年，不管是定投股市还是房市，回报率都高，未来难以维持 -gccard- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:25:24

• 如果预测未来股市的回报，我认为以每年8-10% -越王剑- ♂ (39 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:41:49

• nominal return hard to predict。 real return of 4-5% is super -njrookie- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 07:05:14

• 这已经很不错了，投资房也有名义增长和除去inflation的增长 -yangyang08- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 07:08:45

• 多谢分析. 还是要time the market? -mobius- ♂ (58 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 07:07:51

• 你还是没法接受拿到high single digit回报就已经很好了 -njrookie- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 07:22:02

• 穷, 贪, 胆小 -mobius- ♂ (39 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 07:30:41

• 想要找到一个能够赚到20%的稳定赚钱方式，需要大量的心血和起伏。其实就是一个有自己edge的生意。定投的结果就是平均回报 -njrookie- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 08:01:46

• 00年1米spy现在约4米，09年的现在约5米。说不timing，只是像我这样的无法驾驭而已 -start2020- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 07:53:29

• 对99%人而言，timing的结果是underperform market。意识到这点需要十年。原因就是我帖子里说的 -njrookie- ♂ (47 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 08:02:53

• 我是100%谢谢你的提醒。2千年前有近25年的大牛市，2千年后有近12年的修正平盘。从09年地点我们走过了14年的牛市。 -start2020- ♀ (159 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 08:24:54

• 感谢感谢！太棒了。我存下来消化一下这些分析！ -bobpainting- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 09:03:45

• Long term chart a double top is very obvious. Isn’t it? -goingplaces- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 11:08:31