72

Let annual growth be x%, and number of years being y.  Usually the stock doubles when x times y = 72. 

For example:

annual growth is 8%, it will take 9 years to double.  1.08 ^ 9 ~ 2. 

annual growth is 5%, it will take 14 years to double.  1.05 ^ 14 ~ 2.

So if you want to double in 6 years, the annual growth has to be 12%.   This is not the historical performance of SP 500. 

So where is your 历史经验 coming from？

所有跟帖： 

• 见内，估计重点是平均和about.. -人言可畏- ♀ (3433 bytes) () 04/12/2023 postreply 05:39:04

• 2013 to 2023 152% -柠檬椰子汁- ♂ (310 bytes) () 04/12/2023 postreply 05:53:51

• 从去年跌情来看,最坏打算还有4年,准备4年现金 -BBL123- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2023 postreply 06:04:33

• 你是说股市还要跌4年？到2027年才能见底，到时才可投入股市？ -hhtt- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2023 postreply 06:10:31

• 从2013到2022股市从没连跌两年,为防万一今年进股,把钱分4份安全些 -BBL123- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2023 postreply 06:35:37

• 哪里你看到股市跌了两年？2022年大盘是跌了17%，但是今年已经涨了8%！如果从去年10月的低点算，已经涨了15%！ -hhtt- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2023 postreply 06:44:46

• 看看如果像你这样的投资方法，你的回报会差多少? -hhtt- ♂ (601 bytes) () 04/12/2023 postreply 06:46:22

• 这句深得吾心：past performance is not indicative of future results. -人言可畏- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2023 postreply 09:37:04

• 差3个百分点，会差5年，所以不要小看红利，红利再投，费用。 -start2020- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/12/2023 postreply 09:00:11