St. Louis Fed Quietly Finds US Is Now In A Recession

St. Louis Fed Quietly Finds US Is Now In A Recession

In recent weeks, we have seen a burst of unexpected truthiness out of various regional Fed banks, a sharp contrast to the constant barrage of prevarication out of the Federal Reserve.

First, it was the Philadelphia Fed which effectively revised what was according to the BLS a gain of 1.1 million jobs to just 10,500 jobs, meaning that the Fed was looking at erroneously overstated, arguably politicized data, as it unleashed its burst of 75bps rate hikes in June… which happened just as June jobs number turned negative.

Then, a few days later, the Cleveland Fed suggested that the Fed's entire inflation view is wrong, relying on core CPI (and PCE) data that is woefully, even dangerously, delayed – in some cases lagging market data by up to 12 months, and suggesting that rent inflation – a core component of shelter and OER inflation which is arguably the most important component of "sticky" US service inflation – is actually far lower if measured correctly.

所有跟帖： 

• Let's Go Brandon! -冬前- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/04/2023 postreply 07:01:17

• 冬前兄，你先别管什么经济危机！九叔昨晚在睡梦中笑醒了，共和党竟然连个国会议长都难产？再这样下去，2024年又是九叔的了！ -hhtt- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/04/2023 postreply 07:22:47

• Haha... that's called democracy... -冬前- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/04/2023 postreply 07:35:47

• Maybe the Fed will stop rate increases? -冬前- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/04/2023 postreply 07:34:29

• recession 好， 可以买房子 -LexusOnly- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/04/2023 postreply 08:18:01