Do you know what market price means? Future expectation

来源: mt123 于 2008-11-26 10:56:40 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (472 bytes)

is priced in! 40% down in the past 2 years doesn't mean 40% in the next 2 yrs. Also Santa Clara RE down 20% in the past 2 yrs doesn't it will down another 20% next. Nobody can predict that, including you and me.
If you want to use last 2 yrs history as your forecast of what will happen in the next 2 yrs, that's what we call naive forecast in financial industry.
BTW, I am not a RE broker. Just don't like people pretend to be an expert and mislead people.

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