Sequence of returns risk

来源: 橙县闲人于 2019-03-02 08:34:01 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读：次 (1409 bytes)

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Is sequence of returns risk the only thing they have to scare you out of early retirement ?

The favorite year they used is 1969, but I guess 1972 will do too. Both years were right before a major stock crash and huge multiple year inflation run up, brought by Vietnam War, Oil embargo by OPEC, and most important, President Richard Nixon's de-coupling of US dollar from gold (used to be $38 per ounce). The 70s is the decade the Fed just began to learn how to manage inflation effectively in a paper money system.

But 7% is a new high (or new low) withdraw rate even for that matter.

What makes a simulation from 1969 and 1972 failed is lnflation adjustment, not stock market crash. That is why you will not fail in 2000 or 2008, both with huge stock market correction, but not inflation. The issue is, do people really spend in inflation adjusted way or nominally ? The biggest spending, housing, does not need to be inflation adjusted as long as you pay it off or using a fixed rate mortgage. In our great state of California, even the property tax is capped at 2% increase.

Also, are all your retirement spending so non-elastic, there are all need, nothing want ? You can always cut want in the bad year if needed.