谈谈比特币

来源: insouthbay 于 2018-01-23 12:00:05 [档案] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读：次 (4411 bytes)

我的朋友很恨美元，认为它乱印，是邪恶的，朋友是比特币的坚定看好者。我们意见相反。下面是我的看法。大家请评论，不管同意或反对。

I believe it is a scam, at most become a niche market for few people, but it will never be a currency.
why it will never be a currency?

(1) although it claims its biggest advantage is de-centralized, actually, it is the most centralized, because a small group of people has the control of the bitcoin code, and they can change the behavior if they want, for example, the total num of coin is set to 21mi, it would be easy for them to change to,say, 100mil;

(2) the fix ceiling of 21mil coins, even without speculation, this will cause major deflation, everyone knows that the bitcoin value will go higher and higher, and hesitate to use it.

(3) currently bitcoin transaction are mainly for sell/buy of bitcoin, not for people buying goods (very few), and it already take 20 min for a transaction to go thru due to blockchain encryption on so many ledgers. when the world use it as currency, the transaction amount will be trillion times more than now, imagine how much time it would take for a transaction. A reasonable time should not be more than 10 seconds. A wechat pay takes no more than 3 sec.

(4) Can you imagine a country has more than one currency?

We already have too many crypto-currencies. Low barrier of entries.

(5) Compared to Gold, which there is only finite amount on earth, and take a lot of effort to dig it out.

But for bitcoin, the 稀缺性是人为制造出来的。 there is one line of code to set total num to be 21mil

(6) Currently, most governments just let it trade, as an investment property, but when it starts to threaten their currency, they will not let it happen. Why would central government want to lose control of their currency? they will do whatever it takes to shut it down.

(7) if it becomes world's only currency, we have currently $241 trillion wealth, but only 21mi bitcoins, so each bitcoin need to worth $10mil. Now, I want to buy something for 55 cents, how does it work?

(8) if each bitcoin worth 10mil, how do we transfer to that society. let's say, I have $10K US Dollar, those become junk? because dollar will not currency. Imagine the social unrest. The very small number of people holding the bitcoin become trillionairs, the rest of world become worthless.