So Far, DC region price dropped -30% from 2005, and continuing

Miat: From the table below, we can clearly see an accumulative 30% decline in home price. It's still dropping at a rate of about $2000 - $3000 per month. We can observe that the speed of dropping has slowed.
But a slow drip like this can add up pretty big. If this speed continues, by the same time 2009, we would expect the lower percentile price to drop to 200K, median to 290K and higher percentile to 460K.

That means, we are likely to see another 15% drop from today. Will price bottom at that time? It all depends on when the foreclosure activity can stop. But the hope is there that we may bottom out by end of 2009, my best hope though. Well, this trend doesn't apply to places like Manhattan or Palo Alto, these places have barely declined, and the risk of bigger drop is higher than places like DC area.

Date Inventory 25th Percentile 50th Percentile
(Median) 75th Percentile
10/07/2008 12,294 $231,000 $329,950 $505,000
10/01/2008 12,555 $234,500 $330,000 $500,000
09/28/2008 12,512 $235,000 $332,000 $505,000
09/21/2008 12,347 $235,000 $334,900 $500,000
09/14/2008 12,447 $235,000 $335,000 $500,000
09/07/2008 12,033 $237,111 $335,000 $499,999
09/01/2008 12,104 $237,500 $330,000 $499,000
08/29/2008 12,270 $239,000 $334,000 $499,500
08/21/2008 12,664 $239,900 $339,000 $499,900
08/14/2008 12,330 $240,000 $339,950 $499,986
08/07/2008 12,568 $240,000 $339,999 $499,999
08/01/2008 12,347 $242,900 $343,900 $509,000
07/28/2008 12,916 $243,750 $344,900 $509,900
07/21/2008 12,918 $245,000 $349,000 $519,000
07/14/2008 12,862 $248,900 $349,000 $519,900
07/07/2008 12,926 $249,900 $349,900 $519,900
07/01/2008 13,377 $249,900 $349,900 $524,500
06/28/2008 13,157 $249,900 $349,999 $524,900
06/21/2008 13,447 $250,000 $350,000 $529,000
06/14/2008 13,157 $250,000 $355,000 $529,900
06/07/2008 13,172 $254,900 $359,000 $534,900
06/01/2008 13,676 $254,999 $359,000 $530,000
05/28/2008 13,724 $255,000 $359,500 $529,900
05/21/2008 13,511 $257,000 $359,900 $530,000
05/14/2008 13,743 $259,800 $364,000 $535,555
05/07/2008 13,514 $259,900 $364,900 $535,000
05/01/2008 13,743 $259,900 $365,000 $534,900
04/28/2008 13,480 $259,900 $365,000 $535,000
04/21/2008 13,282 $260,000 $365,125 $533,975
04/14/2008 13,147 $262,000 $369,000 $530,425
04/07/2008 12,898 $260,000 $365,000 $529,935
04/01/2008 13,076 $260,000 $364,900 $525,000
03/28/2008 12,934 $260,000 $365,000 $525,000
03/21/2008 12,682 $260,000 $364,900 $524,900
03/14/2008 12,598 $262,500 $365,000 $520,000
03/07/2008 12,509 $264,900 $365,000 $519,900
03/01/2008 12,569 $264,900 $365,000 $519,900
02/28/2008 12,129 $264,900 $362,499 $515,000
02/21/2008 11,916 $265,000 $364,900 $519,900
02/14/2008 11,452 $265,000 $365,000 $519,900
02/07/2008 11,381 $265,900 $365,000 $519,000
02/01/2008 11,198 $269,000 $369,000 $519,900
01/28/2008 11,098 $269,700 $369,900 $520,000
01/21/2008 10,917 $269,900 $369,900 $519,999
01/14/2008 10,979 $269,900 $369,999 $520,000
01/07/2008 10,232 $270,000 $372,500 $519,900
01/01/2008 10,886 $275,000 $375,000 $524,900
12/28/2007 11,107 $275,000 $375,900 $525,000
12/21/2007 11,118 $275,000 $379,000 $525,000
12/14/2007 11,351 $279,000 $380,000 $530,000
12/07/2007 11,769 $280,000 $385,000 $539,900
12/01/2007 12,664 $285,000 $385,000 $540,000
11/28/2007 12,225 $285,000 $387,000 $542,900
11/21/2007 12,253 $288,900 $389,900 $549,000
11/14/2007 12,227 $289,999 $394,000 $549,900
11/07/2007 12,461 $295,000 $399,000 $550,000
11/01/2007 12,734 $299,000 $399,000 $553,741
10/28/2007 12,659 $299,000 $399,000 $559,000
10/21/2007 12,657 $299,500 $399,500 $559,000
10/14/2007 13,232 $299,900 $399,900 $560,000
10/07/2007 12,805 $300,000 $399,950 $569,000
10/01/2007 12,897 $304,900 $400,000 $569,900
09/28/2007 12,633 $300,000 $400,000 $569,900
09/21/2007 12,213 $305,000 $400,000 $567,900
09/14/2007 12,702 $305,423 $407,900 $568,900
09/07/2007 11,878 $305,000 $406,900 $560,000
09/01/2007 12,453 $305,000 $400,000 $556,900
08/28/2007 11,853 $305,423 $405,000 $559,900
08/21/2007 12,241 $308,900 $409,000 $559,000
08/14/2007 12,141 $311,000 $415,000 $572,500
08/07/2007 11,927 $314,900 $419,000 $575,000
08/01/2007 11,839 $315,000 $420,000 $579,000
07/28/2007 11,876 $315,000 $420,000 $579,000
07/21/2007 12,517 $317,500 $424,900 $584,900
07/14/2007 12,641 $319,900 $425,000 $590,000
07/07/2007 12,550 $319,800 $425,000 $597,700
07/01/2007 12,108 $319,900 $426,500 $599,000
06/28/2007 12,330 $319,990 $429,000 $599,000
06/21/2007 12,225 $320,000 $429,900 $599,000
06/14/2007 9,965 $330,000 $442,000 $619,900
06/07/2007 12,375 $325,000 $435,000 $599,900
06/01/2007 11,589 $325,000 $437,900 $599,990
05/28/2007 11,822 $325,000 $439,000 $599,900
05/21/2007 11,667 $329,000 $439,900 $614,000
05/14/2007 11,188 $325,750 $439,990 $614,777
05/07/2007 11,019 $329,000 $444,900 $615,000
05/01/2007 10,456 $329,000 $445,000 $619,000
04/28/2007 10,745 $326,900 $442,000 $619,000
04/21/2007 10,417 $329,000 $440,000 $619,000
04/14/2007 9,957 $329,000 $443,000 $619,900
04/07/2007 9,552 $329,000 $444,900 $619,900
04/01/2007 9,222 $326,500 $445,000 $624,900
03/28/2007 9,151 $325,000 $439,999 $619,900
03/21/2007 8,967 $324,999 $439,900 $619,000
03/14/2007 8,713 $324,900 $439,900 $615,000
03/07/2007 8,376 $320,000 $439,000 $609,900
03/01/2007 8,193 $320,000 $439,500 $613,975
02/28/2007 8,243 $320,000 $439,900 $615,000
02/21/2007 8,328 $324,900 $439,900 $615,000
02/14/2007 8,427 $324,900 $439,830 $615,000
02/07/2007 8,384 $324,000 $439,900 $619,000
02/01/2007 8,130 $320,000 $439,900 $615,000
01/28/2007 8,580 $324,900 $439,900 $613,975
01/21/2007 8,445 $324,900 $439,999 $615,000
01/14/2007 8,464 $319,900 $439,000 $605,000
01/07/2007 8,177 $319,900 $436,113 $600,000
01/01/2007 8,451 $320,000 $439,000 $609,900
12/28/2006 9,066 $324,900 $439,900 $609,900
12/21/2006 9,065 $324,900 $439,900 $613,975
12/14/2006 9,512 $327,000 $448,000 $619,900
12/07/2006 9,613 $329,900 $449,000 $624,987
12/01/2006 9,634 $335,000 $449,900 $629,900
11/28/2006 10,237 $335,000 $449,900 $629,000
11/21/2006 10,597 $335,900 $450,000 $629,000
11/14/2006 10,916 $339,000 $450,000 $629,900
11/07/2006 11,143 $339,900 $453,000 $635,000
11/01/2006 11,475 $339,900 $455,000 $635,000
10/28/2006 11,621 $339,900 $455,000 $630,000
10/21/2006 11,752 $339,900 $455,000 $629,900
10/14/2006 11,804 $340,000 $455,000 $630,000
10/07/2006 11,679 $345,000 $458,777 $635,000
10/01/2006 11,475 $345,000 $459,000 $639,250
09/28/2006 11,790 $345,000 $459,000 $635,000
09/21/2006 11,735 $348,000 $459,900 $639,500
09/14/2006 11,446 $349,000 $460,000 $639,900
09/07/2006 11,150 $345,000 $460,000 $639,000
09/01/2006 10,949 $349,000 $462,500 $635,000
08/28/2006 11,727 $349,000 $463,500 $635,000
08/21/2006 11,712 $349,000 $464,916 $635,000
08/14/2006 11,950 $349,900 $465,000 $639,500
08/07/2006 11,921 $349,900 $469,500 $639,900
08/01/2006 11,706 $349,900 $469,900 $645,000
07/28/2006 12,178 $349,900 $469,900 $646,900
07/21/2006 12,111 $349,950 $474,900 $649,000
07/14/2006 12,070 $349,900 $474,900 $649,900
07/07/2006 11,827 $350,000 $475,000 $649,900
07/01/2006 12,172 $350,000 $479,000 $649,900
06/28/2006 12,439 $354,999 $479,900 $650,000
06/21/2006 12,469 $355,000 $479,900 $652,900
06/14/2006 12,152 $355,000 $479,900 $664,900
06/07/2006 11,825 $359,900 $484,900 $669,000
06/01/2006 11,391 $359,900 $485,000 $670,000
05/28/2006 11,604 $359,000 $485,000 $669,000
05/21/2006 11,740 $359,000 $485,000 $674,900
05/14/2006 11,255 $357,000 $485,000 $675,000
05/07/2006 10,310 $359,000 $489,000 $679,000
05/01/2006 10,460 $355,000 $485,000 $675,000
04/28/2006 10,169 $350,000 $484,999 $675,000
04/21/2006 9,542 $349,500 $479,000 $669,000
04/14/2006 9,541 $349,500 $479,000 $669,000
04/07/2006 9,051 $344,900 $475,000 $664,500
04/01/2006 8,927 $344,900 $475,000 $669,900
03/28/2006 8,562 $339,000 $468,000 $659,000
03/21/2006 8,451 $339,000 $469,000 $659,900
03/14/2006 8,025 $339,000 $469,000 $659,900
03/07/2006 7,563 $338,000 $469,000 $659,999
03/01/2006 7,354 $336,000 $469,000 $655,000
02/28/2006 7,442 $337,000 $467,000 $650,000
02/21/2006 7,258 $335,000 $465,000 $650,000
02/14/2006 7,034 $334,900 $459,900 $650,000
02/07/2006 6,798 $335,000 $459,900 $650,000
02/01/2006 6,675 $330,000 $459,000 $649,900
01/28/2006 6,675 $330,000 $459,500 $649,900
01/21/2006 6,497 $330,000 $459,900 $649,900
01/14/2006 6,444 $330,000 $459,000 $649,900
01/07/2006 6,103 $334,900 $450,000 $649,900
01/01/2006 6,054 $339,000 $457,900 $649,900
12/28/2005 6,367 $339,000 $450,000 $649,888
12/21/2005 6,793 $339,900 $450,000 $649,000
12/14/2005 7,140 $340,000 $459,000 $649,000
12/07/2005 7,259 $345,000 $465,000 $650,000
12/01/2005 7,337 $349,900 $469,000 $659,900
11/28/2005 7,590 $349,900 $469,900 $659,900
11/21/2005 8,011 $349,900 $469,900 $659,990
11/14/2005 8,001 $350,000 $475,000 $674,800
11/07/2005 8,000 $350,000 $475,000 $674,888
11/01/2005 7,887 $359,000 $479,900 $678,000
10/28/2005 7,822 $359,000 $479,900 $675,000
10/21/2005 7,737 $359,000 $480,000 $679,000
10/14/2005 7,392 $359,900 $485,000 $679,999
10/07/2005 7,262 $360,000 $489,000 $685,000
10/01/2005 7,157 $360,000 $489,000 $689,000
09/28/2005 6,009 $370,000 $499,900 $699,900
09/21/2005 5,885 $372,000 $499,900 $699,990
09/14/2005 5,464 $370,000 $499,900 $699,900
09/07/2005 4,636 $369,000 $499,000 $699,900
09/01/2005 5,472 $358,999 $484,900 $689,000
08/28/2005 5,455 $355,000 $484,990 $695,000
08/21/2005 5,547 $358,000 $484,900 $699,000
08/14/2005 5,347 $360,000 $489,000 $699,900

所有跟帖： 

• 回复：So Far, DC region price dropped -30% from 2005, and continuin -alfrank- ♂ (453 bytes) () 10/08/2008 postreply 05:26:33

• My understanding of price drop migration from bad to good -miat42- ♂ (1026 bytes) () 10/08/2008 postreply 05:36:47

• Housing prices still have a long way to go down. -BeLe- ♀ (203 bytes) () 10/08/2008 postreply 05:35:05

• 用DC地区经济收入为基础分析房价之合理性 -miat42- ♂ (418 bytes) () 10/08/2008 postreply 05:57:33

• You knowingly ignore the job market downturn -naboo2008- ♂ (0 bytes) () 10/08/2008 postreply 07:36:23

• 如果Wall street垮了，Manhattan房价是不是也该大跌了？ -笑xixi- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/08/2008 postreply 06:33:03

• 回复：不会 那是外国大佬的神地 -可亲可近- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/08/2008 postreply 09:05:04

• Don't feel that way, NYC's historical drop percentage was -miat42- ♂ (358 bytes) () 10/08/2008 postreply 09:42:39

• 回复：So Far, DC region price dropped -30% from 2005, and continuin -caeer-guy- ♂ (246 bytes) () 10/08/2008 postreply 10:18:20