I predicted DJIA to drop below 10000 about 3-4 months ago

来源: miat42 于 2008-10-06 08:18:23 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (1219 bytes)

That prediction came true today. Will market go down more and deeper? sure it may. The market could go much below today's level if our recession goes deeper. Sensing that in early this year, I warned everybody about this risk, and personally protected myself by moving all my trading portfolio into cash positions in February. This turmoil is not like the same as any turmoil we've experienced before. It's worse off than any in our memory. Last week, I talked about a "bank run" has already started in the corporate/commercial arena, the risk is tremendous. If things start to worsen from here, the risk of a general "bank run" on the wider sections of economy could ensue. Be extremely cautious out there. You may have the temptation to go "bottom" hunting. But unfortunately, we don't really know when the bottom will be. From the lessons we learned in 2000 to 2003, it took more than 24 months for the market to touch its real bottom, although many false bottoms were perceived by traders at that time. So, if we guess that the bear market officially started in January 2008, we are most probably only half way to the bottom. If that's true, more carnage will await for us in next 12 months.

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• 谢了，对与错没关系，我们自己要思考判断，大胆假设，小心求证 -家庭煮夫- ♂ 给 家庭煮夫 发送悄悄话 家庭煮夫 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/06/2008 postreply 08:33:28

• 希望有武功的DX们经常亮剑，藏着腋着也没意思，捣乱的DOW2万点再说 -家庭煮夫- ♂ 给 家庭煮夫 发送悄悄话 家庭煮夫 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/06/2008 postreply 08:42:04

• 捣乱的DOW2万点再说，哥们现在烦着那 -家庭煮夫- ♂ 给 家庭煮夫 发送悄悄话 家庭煮夫 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/06/2008 postreply 08:45:09

• You forgot that it was a "fun" prediction. -屋漏痕- ♂ 给 屋漏痕 发送悄悄话 屋漏痕 的博客首页 (927 bytes) () 10/06/2008 postreply 08:56:45

• 说了是‘GUT FEELING’，谁能100%对，道琼斯他爸? -家庭煮夫- ♂ 给 家庭煮夫 发送悄悄话 家庭煮夫 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/06/2008 postreply 09:01:07

• miat! -屋漏痕- ♂ 给 屋漏痕 发送悄悄话 屋漏痕 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/06/2008 postreply 09:06:04

• 回复：miat! -tfyt- ♀ 给 tfyt 发送悄悄话 tfyt 的博客首页 (52 bytes) () 10/06/2008 postreply 11:59:02

• 请问你的cash是存money market, CD 还是saving account?谢谢 -笑xixi- ♀ 给 笑xixi 发送悄悄话 笑xixi 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/06/2008 postreply 09:05:29

• Treasury based Money market funds -miat42- ♂ 给 miat42 发送悄悄话 miat42 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/06/2008 postreply 10:02:44

• 回复：I predicted DJIA to drop below 10000 about 3-4 months ago -tiantianmommy- ♀ 给 tiantianmommy 发送悄悄话 (177 bytes) () 10/06/2008 postreply 09:19:16

• Whether or not Dow is above/under 10K is not an issue. -美西游子- ♀ 给 美西游子 发送悄悄话 美西游子 的博客首页 (169 bytes) () 10/06/2008 postreply 09:30:51

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