我透露一些内部金融操做的内幕

让各位更清楚油价为何被炒高,我透露一些内部操做的内幕 2008-07-21 12:30:18

I can explain to you one of the ways they can manipulate oil price. This is done today by many hedge funds, sovereign funds and private equity funds. I work in financial industry so I know how to do it. Currently there are hundreds of funds involved with using a derivative called Total Return Swap (TRS) to drive oil contracts. Untold amount of money is involved that includes funds from China, Saudi and anywhere you can possibly imagine. And untold amount of companies are doing it at the same time, and untold amount of profit is being earned. They use TRS to play underlying asset which is oil contracts, at the same time, risk is being off the book so SEC is having a hard time to track down. Similar CDS and CDO, it's a cash flow exchange game played out by removing the actual asset from the books. In simple language, the player will receive all the gain, but not exposed to the risk. For whatever reason, hundreds and thousands firms are currently engaged in these similar practice to drive oil, raw material, food contracts with similar instruments like TRS. And this is perfectly legal.

The question is why all these funds are doing the same thing? I don't know. All I know is that it serves some purpose to some group of people.

How the TRS operate is very complicated. I have no interest to explain everything to you. However, if you are interested in learning finance, you can google it and self-educate.

My point is that there is no such thing as oil shortage. Supply and demand does not have anything to do with oil price. However, it's the action of these traders moving trillions of dollars that caused the oil price movement.

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由miat42张贴 @ 2008-07-21 12:30:18 (79)

为何石油需求是部分伪造出来的. 金融炒操作内幕[2 - 原创] 2008-07-21 12:29:52

Goldman Sachs setup these Total Return Swaps to swap in Soverign funds or Pension funds' money. Buyers pay a set rate and is paid back the earnings from the underlying asset. The TRS is actually underlied by a basket of commodities with oil be the major component. Goldman Sachs' trader hedges the Swap by buying oil futures contracts. This kind of purchase is purely for margin purposes. But the trick is, it will figure into the calculation of commodity (oil)futures the same as if it were part of the supply and demand change like increased demand. The more these futures contracts are purchased, it more it will show up as physical demand is rising, fueling further increase in oil price. And PHD researchers will publish scentific papers to UN and World bank or Dept of Energy that oil demand is unprecedentedly high, blaming all that to China. And a lot of unknowing public (including many people in this board) believe in this. They were trained to believe in scientific research papers, aren't they? Granted, there may be a long term shortage for oil. But it needs huge manipulation to push the price from $20/barrel to $130/barrel.

Gold Sach's trader made untold amount of profit by margining the future's contracts. They can't lose because hundreds and thousands of other trading firms are involved in the similar kinds of trades. Funds from around the world and inside the US are being leveraged. Federal Reserves's recent infusion of printed dollars into Wall Street helps a great deal too.

Actual operations are more complicated involving SWAP over SWAP and looping SWAPs. Even the underlying can be a swap by itself, rather than real assets.

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由miat42张贴 @ 2008-07-21 12:29:52 (48)

所有跟帖： 

• SEC is requiring banks to disclose energy TRS contracts -worriedmom1- ♀ (552 bytes) () 09/09/2008 postreply 19:11:38

• SEC conveniently left enough well designed "loopholes" -miat42- ♂ (439 bytes) () 09/09/2008 postreply 19:18:47

• 多谢。 -吻扎吻打- ♀ (0 bytes) () 09/09/2008 postreply 19:16:20