把房子尽快卖掉，免得烂手里了．．．可怕啊

U.S. House Price Decline Could Be Worse than Great Depression, Economist Shiller Says
Posted Sep 04, 2008 01:36pm EDT by Henry Blodget in Newsmakers, Recession
Related: ^gspc, fre, fnm

Eight years ago, Yale superstar professor and MacroMarkets chief economist Robert Shiller famously called the top of the stock market in his book Irrational Exuberance. Then, a year before the housing bubble peaked, he predicted the colossal bust we are now experiencing.

If you recognize Shiller's name, it’s because the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price indexes, which he developed with Wellesley College economist Karl Case, have become the nation's most authoritative source for home price trends.

In part one of my one-on-one with Shiller, we discuss the grim outlook for U.S. housing, which he tackles in-depth in his new book The Subprime Solution. Highlights of our first discussion include:

* Home price declines are already approaching those in the Great Depression, when they plunged 30% during the 1930s. With prices already down almost 20%, it's not a stretch to think we might exceed that drop this time around.
* There are about 10 million homeowners whose debt is higher than their home value, which has broad implications for how Americans feel about their wealth and spending habits (read: more pressure on consumer spending).
* The current hopeful consensus -- that house prices will bottom soon and then begin to recover -- is most likely a dream. Housing markets don't usually have "V-shaped" recoveries. And even if house prices stabilize in nominal terms, after adjusting for inflation, most homeowners will continue to lose money.

所有跟帖： 

• 回复：把房子尽快卖掉，免得烂手里了．．．可怕啊 -id-blocked- ♀ (156 bytes) () 09/04/2008 postreply 17:22:55

• 对呀，租房多爽呀！ -dividend_growth- ♀ (0 bytes) () 09/04/2008 postreply 19:22:10

• WHAT A GOOD TIME TO INVEST IN R.E. -szhou888- ♂ (46 bytes) () 09/04/2008 postreply 19:35:11

• 政府应该把所有的PRIME LOAN RATE降下来 -fouquets- ♂ (0 bytes) () 09/05/2008 postreply 05:55:22

• Everyone need a place to live -moonwalker123- ♂ (222 bytes) () 09/05/2008 postreply 19:54:34