Reply to Jinjing on question 3

This is your equation. P(a^bd^cd)=.35*.3+.65*(.3/(1-.35))=.405

The first part is correct. But the second part is not. There are two ways that c could be the first one dead. One way is for A to kill C. In that case, B gets to shoot next. The other way is for A to miss and then B kills C. In that case, A gets to shoot next. The prob is different depending on who shoots first, right? So your equation should be changed to this:

P(a^bd^cd)=.35*.3+(.3*.5+.7*.5)*(.3/(1-.35))=.336

所有跟帖： 

• 回复：Reply to Jinjing on question 3 -guest007- ♀ (32 bytes) () 01/29/2010 postreply 21:27:36

• 回复：回复：Reply to Jinjing on question 3 -endofsuburbia- ♂ (35 bytes) () 01/29/2010 postreply 21:49:39

• 回复：回复：回复：Reply to Jinjing on question 3 -guest007- ♀ (93 bytes) () 01/30/2010 postreply 21:22:57

• 回复：回复：回复：回复：Reply to Jinjing on question 3 -endofsuburbia- ♂ (32 bytes) () 01/30/2010 postreply 22:15:37

• 回复：Reply to Jinjing on question 3 -jinjing- ♀ (62 bytes) () 01/29/2010 postreply 21:56:48

• Ha, I'm right,,you are... -jinjing- ♀ (16 bytes) () 01/29/2010 postreply 23:04:31

• .336 is correct -dynamic- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/30/2010 postreply 00:09:55

• 回复：Wrong:P(a^bd^cd)=.336 -Jinjing- ♀ (141 bytes) () 01/30/2010 postreply 07:51:42

• 回复You're right,I'm going down. -Jinjing- ♀ (85 bytes) () 01/30/2010 postreply 09:54:42