answer

来源: praisethelord 于 2009-04-30 10:41:13 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (393 bytes)
回答: probability question for the season 由 praisethelord 于 2009-04-29 13:36:50

Correct!

See, a 99% test is only accurate for 33.22% of time. The answer showed how misleading that "accurate" tests couild be for low probability events. However, people use "rules of thumb" all the time without noticing this. Diagnosing diseases, predicting stock trends, forecasting earthquakes... Hopefully the question could wake people up to be alerted on "the day".

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• great. I am waken up by you. -戏雨飞鹰- ♀ 给 戏雨飞鹰 发送悄悄话 戏雨飞鹰 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 04/30/2009 postreply 11:08:35

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