回复：地震预报等于买彩票

来源: beihang 于 2008-05-30 18:57:28 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (278 bytes)

This is standard application of Bayes Theorm. But, the assumption is not right. The definition of probability requires the events to be repeated under the same condition. It does not apply for earth quake.

Although it seems to offer valid argument, it is actually flawed.

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• You are quite right -出入自在- ♂ 给 出入自在 发送悄悄话 出入自在 的博客首页 (58 bytes) () 06/03/2008 postreply 17:14:13

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