Don't rule out a trade despite Rockets' recent run
Jonathan Feigen
February 13, 2014
Smiley N. Pool, Staff
Houston Rockets center Omer Asik (3) shoots over Portland Trail Blazers power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) during the first half of an NBA basketball game at Toyota Center on Friday, Feb. 8, 2013, in Houston. ( Smiley N. Pool / Houston Chronicle )
A season-best seven-game winning streak and rise to third in the Western Conference would seem to clarify things. They don't.
The Rockets might know their team better than when it was assembled. They might even like it better. But with the trade deadline less than a week away, even the recent run of success is unlikely to change plans or goals for next week's decision-making.
The Rockets are expected to be as active as ever in talks and as likely to make a move by next Thursday' deadline as they were before their run to the All-Star break.
General manager Daryl Morey might have been tempted to predict he would sit this one out for a variety of reasons, but his track record would argue otherwise.
Morey has never in his six previous years as a general manager let a trade deadline slip by without making a deal. Even last season, when he publicly doubted a deal would come through and privately told owner Leslie Alexander that it appeared none would be made, he ended up trading his starting power forward, Patrick Patterson, and his backup, Marcus Morris.
This season, the Rockets are much more in a win-now mode, complicating the decisions to come but making them no less likely to deal.
As much as the recent success might build more confidence in the current roster and the temptation to keep it intact, it also reinforces the idea that the right, seemingly small move could pay off greatly and quickly.
Morey views the trade deadline differently than in past seasons, when he often gambled on long-term upside, as opposed to finding complementary pieces. He sounds very much as if he's leading a panel at his Sloan Conference at MIT.
"It sounds too analytical, but it really is true," Morey said. "I'm trying to make the sum of our probability over the next three years to be higher than it was before, with just a little more weighting on now."
Smiley N. Pool, Staff
Houston Rockets point guard Jeremy Lin during media day at Toyota Center on Friday, Sept. 27, 2013, in Houston. ( Smiley N. Pool / Houston Chronicle )
Morey would not discuss goals for the trade deadline, but several other individuals with knowledge of the team's thinking said the Rockets already sought to land a backup wing who is strong defensively and can catch-and-shoot, rather than a power forward (considered a priority before the season) or a perimeter player who creates off the dribble.
This could reflect a change in their thinking. They had talks last month with then-free-agent center Andrew Bynum before opting against making an offer, according to a person familiar with the talks. It was unclear if the Rockets backed away because of questions about Bynum's contributing this season or signing after this season or because they decided to keep center Omer Asik.
Morey expected to trade Asik in December, but a deal is much less likely now. While the Rockets' concern is more with a player's cost against the salary cap and luxury tax, rather than what he is actually paid, there are teams that will not consider a deal for Asik because he will earn roughly $15 million next season, even if his contract would count only $8.3 million against their cap. The pool of teams potentially interested is further cut by excluding the group more interested in improving their draft position than roster.
Asik helps weaknesses
That leaves a relatively small group that wants to improve this season, has a need for a defensive-oriented center, can make a deal in which the salaries match, and is not scared off by Asik's contract.
After waiting two months to get Asik back on the court, the Rockets are not eager to let him go, especially for a player likely to play no greater role at a different position than Asik can at his. Given the Rockets' issues with defense and rebounding off the bench, there's a sense Asik can help more than the players the Rockets can get for him.
Jeremy Lin's contract would similarly narrow the field, and Lin is the Rockets' strongest scorer off the bench.
Lin and Asik fit the short-term mindset well, but the Rockets already have shown they will be cautious about taking on contracts beyond the 2014-15 season. They opted against a December trade with the Celtics for Courtney Lee and Brandon Bass - a deal that might have helped this season, especially while Asik was out - because the length of Lee's contract could have become an issue.
Had that trade or ones Morey will consider in the coming days been strong enough to dramatically change the Rockets' championship chances, future flexibility would be of little concern. Improvement, however, will have to be significant to take on long-term contracts.
"I think obviously we're trying to win every night and win this year, but I still have to take a slightly larger look at the horizon," Morey said. "I'm trying to optimize our probability of winning the title over a short one- to three-season time frame. If a move increases our chances of winning this year significantly but hurts the future, we would even look at moves that set up future moves if we felt it would push the probability of winning in the future high enough.
"As usual, the best thing is to be opportunistic and stay flexible. That's how we ended up with (James) Harden and Dwight (Howard). We continue to stay in that mode. I think there will be some good opportunities to help the team this year and potentially in the future as well."
The Rockets do not have the sort of heavy but expiring contract that often triggers the biggest deadline deals. They are more hesitant to break up their rotation given the development of Terrence Jones and the backcourt rotation of Pat Beverley and Lin with Harden.
Some assets to dangle
They do have all of their own first-round picks, a Knicks second-round pick and the rights to international players Sergio Llull and Kostas Papanikolaou, who are well-regarded. But they have little excess to deal. NBA rules gave Aaron Brooks and Francisco Garcia the right to block trades when they signed one-year contracts, and each has shown a preference to be in Houston, with Brooks turning down the probability of more playing time and Garcia a larger contract to sign with the Rockets.
Donatas Motiejunas, who has been in and out of the rotation but has shown flashes of potential in recent weeks, will draw interest. The contracts of Ronnie Brewer and rookies Isaiah Canaan and Robert Covington could be attractive in a deal.
None of those options would seem likely to lead to a trade. By now, however, the Rockets know better than to bet against a deadline deal. A winning streak cannot change that.
