Looking out 12 month....
NVDA： max upside that I can see is $200 (maybe it can go higher, but I just could not see it).
- buying at 140-150 net only 33% to 45% upside. Not super attractive -- 所以在这里不需要激进
- buying at 110-130 improves profit to 90% to 70%. This is becoming attractive
BA: max upside could be $250 if this thing turns around
- buying at 150 or below net 60% upside, attractive
- buying near 180-200 net 25%-45% upside, Not super attractive
TSLA: max upside could be 700
- buying at 250 or below has 200% upside, hugely attractive
- buying at 350 has a 100% upside, very attractive
- buying at 450 reduce upside to 55%, not super attractive
Of course, we should also model the probability into the above scenarios, but even this simple model can help to decide how aggressive you want to be.
This is the reason I am still on the fence with BA above 180 price.
