1. jewery demand has been stagnant or declining over the past few years, what's driving gold price now is investment demand and official sector hoarding;
2&3. when capital has confidence in the economy and the economic/financial system, capital flows out of gold into real economy; when capital loses confidence in the economy and in the monetary system, it flows out of the economy into gold.
When the monetary system is sound and healthy, gold trades like a commodity and its price tends to be drawn toward its commodity value;
When the monetary system becomes shaky and people are losing confidence, gold's monetary reserve nature takes over and start to trade as money, and its price is drawn toward its value as monetary reserve for the system.
when gold start to behave as money, jewery and industrial demand no longer affect gold price very much. The monetary and investment demand takes over the price discovery.
Big international banks all have trading desks. Gold trading is conducted at banks' currency trading desks, not commodity trading desk like oil or copper.
Forget about inflation adjustment. This gold bull market is about monetary reserve.
If you see gold as a commodity then you will naturally will expect gold price to drop.
If you see what I see, that gold is resuming its monetary reserve function, then the price of gold will keep going up to approach its true value which is at least many multiples of its current level.
I think the market is telling us in no uncertain terms that gold is going back to its monetary role.
