现在经济到底怎么样?查了一些数据

来源: 绿园紫竹 2022-01-30 14:08:15 [] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (640042 bytes)
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坛上老有帖子说现在失业的人多,公司不赚钱。现在经济到底怎么样?我查了一些数据并附上来源:

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-01/gdp4q21_adv.pdf

GDP增长高达6.9%,注意这是扣除通货膨胀以后的数字!

增长来自哪里?请见下面黑体部分 来源:https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2021-advance-estimate

The increase in private inventory investment was led by retail and wholesale trade industries. Within retail, inventory investment by motor vehicle dealers was the leading contributor. The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods and services. The increase in exports of goods was widespread, and the leading contributors were consumer goods, industrial supplies and materials, and foods, feeds, and beverages. The increase in exports of services was led by travel. The increase in PCE primarily reflected an increase in services, led by health care, recreation, and transportation. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected an increase in intellectual property products that was partly offset by a decrease in structures.

失业率接近20年来最低:

来源: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

 

所有跟帖: 

算啥增长率都不能用2020年的基数,要从2019年开始算 -清水胜浓茶- 给 清水胜浓茶 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/30/2022 postreply 14:39:56

波大那贴我就指出我不信他和他老婆的分析。 -rapidestate- 给 rapidestate 发送悄悄话 rapidestate 的博客首页 (92 bytes) () 01/30/2022 postreply 15:31:59

行业不均衡,收入不均衡。排除通胀,大多数人收入是下降的。可支配收入下降,经济是难有起色的。 -alpha123- 给 alpha123 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/30/2022 postreply 16:19:55

你要光看这些数字就是个笑话。。失业率的数字低不是因为工作的人多了而是因为工作的人少了,因为大批人决定不干了。 -borisg- 给 borisg 发送悄悄话 borisg 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/30/2022 postreply 16:46:58

没错!不能光看失业率!这是老川和九叔用来显摆他们的政绩的!联储更注重劳动参与率, 现在是61.9%,新冠前是63.3%。 -hhtt- 给 hhtt 发送悄悄话 hhtt 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/30/2022 postreply 18:33:33

现在的劳动参与率也有很大的不足,劳动密集型的行业,现在越来越多人工作但只拿现金报酬不被计算在劳动参与率中,这种情况比往年更严重 -落花起作回风舞- 给 落花起作回风舞 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/30/2022 postreply 18:36:46

GDP增长率的基数是2020年,这个水分很大 -落花起作回风舞- 给 落花起作回风舞 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/30/2022 postreply 18:34:00

不知道别的公司如何,反正我们公司是主动加薪留住员工。奖金也是标准的1.6倍 -gastank1289- 给 gastank1289 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/30/2022 postreply 19:23:00

虽然基数是2020年,但是2020 年的Q3和Q4也是增长很多的, -Austin8- 给 Austin8 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 01/31/2022 postreply 09:29:56

吹泡沫的时候,看着数据都很好,泡沫破灭时,所有数据都难看。 -6thsense- 给 6thsense 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 02/01/2022 postreply 09:21:19

高库存 -那边风景独好- 给 那边风景独好 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 02/01/2022 postreply 12:11:56

经济好的很 是OECD中数一数二的 只有政治狂人才假装看不见 -HenryCharles- 给 HenryCharles 发送悄悄话 HenryCharles 的博客首页 (1419 bytes) () 02/02/2022 postreply 10:54:36

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