DUOL近期下跌的一个原因据说

是因为Google涉足AI教育领域。想起来多年前NFLX刚开始做流媒体时,很多大厂员工说NFLX人傻钱多(高水平员工不多),而且NFLX一直面临Amazon Prime Video和YouTube的潜在竞争,这么多年NFLX已经是流媒体领域无可争议的老大。关于DUOL的护城河,Google AI的总结:

Duolingo (DUOL) is generally considered to have a narrow economic moat built primarily on strong brand recognition, network effects, AI-driven technology, and customer loyalty. While some analysts view the moat as robust and "impenetrable," others argue it lacks the regulatory barriers or cost advantages for a "wide" moat. 
Key components of Duolingo's competitive advantage (moat) include:
  • Strong Brand and User Loyalty: Duolingo's globally recognized brand and its viral, gamified user experience (including the popular "streaks" and the Duolingo Owl mascot) help foster significant customer loyalty and a large, engaged user base. This acts as a powerful barrier to entry for competitors.
  • Network Effects and Data Advantage: With over 100 million monthly active learners, the platform benefits from network effects. The vast amount of user data generated from engagement is used to continuously refine the learning algorithms and user experience, which is difficult for new entrants to replicate quickly.
  • AI and Scalable Content Creation: Duolingo uses AI extensively to accelerate course creation and expand its offerings into new subjects like Math and Music. This technological capability allows for rapid content scaling while maintaining low operational costs, enhancing its efficiency and solidifying its leadership in the digital education space.
  • Switching Costs (for some users): For users who have built up significant progress (streaks, language proficiency) over long periods, there can be a psychological or perceived switching cost that encourages them to stay within the Duolingo ecosystem.
  • Duolingo English Test (DET): The acceptance of the Duolingo English Test by thousands of universities worldwide provides an additional, credible product that diversifies its business and adds an authoritative layer to its brand. 
In essence, Duolingo's moat stems from its ability to provide a superior, engaging user experience at scale, leveraging technology and brand power to maintain a leading market position. 

所有跟帖: 

DUOL的创始人是CMU SCS的一个教授和他的博士生 -study169- 给 study169 发送悄悄话 study169 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:02:47

Netflix CEO和这家公司culture全美国都没有几家公司可以相比更不用说Dulingo -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:21:06

Netflix刚创建邮寄DVD时成为美国商学院经典案例,但转流媒体时股票跌得一塌糊涂 -study169- 给 study169 发送悄悄话 study169 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:24:47

我当时投Netflix主要就是看好它的CEO,不认为Duolingo CEO有他的能力和魄力 -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:37:29

“不觉得”是个很感性的用词。:) -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:38:40

去读读他的自传, 投公司很多时候是投人 -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (3010 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:42:36

不是每一个优秀leader都得是狠角色的,Lluis von ahn is a visionary leader :) -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:43:48

我赞成你对NFLX CEO 的评价,所以我才坚持从2008-2009年就长持NFLX,现在还加仓:) -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:45:50

狠人是贬义应该说exceptional leader rarely seen in history -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:45:53

"狠人“在商场上不是贬义词,”不讲信用“的人才是。 不用改。:) -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:49:00

改成定性不认为 -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:43:23

LOL 这个好 :) -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:44:32

我对DUOL了解也不多,只是觉得很难简单判断一个公司的成长。NFLX CEO在 -study169- 给 study169 发送悄悄话 study169 的博客首页 (133 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:51:49

欢迎讨论,在下面薄少帅的贴里,我放了我做的FA+BA,蛮长的,有兴趣的话可以看看。 -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:53:28

所有公司都有risks, 很多时候我们最不应该做的就是be judgmental。Be open minded -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (81 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:55:37

2022年订阅growth不如预期Wall Street认为永久性其实暂时性 -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:55:13

NFLX和DUOL addressable market vastly different -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:55:53

They're in totally different sectors, I personally -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (76 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:58:10

我更多从competitive advantage和竞争璧垒以及商业模式局限性做出判断 -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 17:00:44

如果狮山兄有时间且不觉得我的阅历不够,请移步读一读我写的FA+BA,您说的应该都包括了:) -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 17:03:22

The only hiccup is that I didn't compare apple w/ orange :) -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 17:05:21

我对行业要求高,可能有我的bias就像薄帅永远不会投PLTR -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 17:08:24

这点我赞同,行业挺重要的。 -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 17:11:26

资本有限应该投到最有前途行业的最好公司 -lionhill- 给 lionhill 发送悄悄话 lionhill 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 17:35:16

站这。1. 小鸟这种学习方式我认为是饮鸩止渴 2. 教育这个行业最终的追求应该是公平。我会捐钱给这行,但不买这行的股票。 -dancingpig- 给 dancingpig 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 18:21:29

well said, respectfully accept :) 晚安,狮山兄,很棒的探讨。我得去干活了, -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (141 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 17:12:08

我简单想法,我自己学语言不会去用它。 但我天天用Netflx, LOL, 我就这思考水平 -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:24:39

DUOL有两个很大的市场:一是跨国公司的员工,二是teenager & the young 20s.... -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:30:10

DUOL在年轻人中非常popular. 我跟薄少帅提起时,他说他儿子也刚好和他提起, -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (119 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:32:01

有的时候我们要去看一个公司的market share重点分布在哪里,譬如Instagram, META最大的挣钱机器, -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (79 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 16:36:24

这个赞同 -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 17:13:13

我下了呀,bog, 这几天可能有点忙,忙完了我再来找你玩。晚安。:) -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 17:17:45

okay. g'nite -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 18:11:28

确实将来会有竞争,这个也是投资 DUOL 的风险之一。 -薄利多收- 给 薄利多收 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 17:36:56

薄副您下面的楼都被我们弄歪了, oops -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 17:49:52

哈哈,叫晓炎老板正过来。 :) -薄利多收- 给 薄利多收 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/07/2025 postreply 18:36:16

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