今天Google怎么了?我今天的Portfolio 调整

本帖于 2025-10-21 15:35:54 时间, 由普通用户 晓炎 编辑

我这一段时间在重点加仓两只股:GOOG & AMZN.

GOOG是年初卖飞了,后来重新分析理清思路,决定买回,几次加仓后均价$240。

AMZN比较幸运,前几天跌得满地找牙时,我趁火打劫进了很多,均价$213. 

但是因为AMZN买得太多了,所以持仓超过了我对这只股portfolio allocation %的分配, 所以今天早上在$222卖出了一批。将更多资金转入GOOG@246. 我写这一篇,是想说一个我投资时长持的心理安定法—— (1)买入价很重要,(2)portfolio allocation很重要,(3)当然,最重要的是买入一个自己有conviction的好公司,(4)不要铺得太开,我手上除了几只ETFs, 个股不超过10个,这样便于管理。

再补充一点:假如AMZN跌到$200 - 180 -160, 我会继续买入。

下面转贴一篇刚刚读到的关于Google今天“小跌”的文章——

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Why Alphabet (GOOGL) Stock Is Trading Lower Today? 

What Happened?

Shares of online advertising giant Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) fell 3.2% in the afternoon session after privately held competitor OpenAI announced a new online search browser (ChatGPT Atlas). This new product, integrating advanced AI directly into the browsing and search experience, represents a direct, major competitive threat to Google's most profitable assets: the Chrome browser and the Search advertising engine. This news likely prompted some investors to take profits in GOOGL, which was near an all-time high, as the market re-priced the risk associated with this intensified AI "war" for internet dominance.

The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks. Is now the time to buy Alphabet? Access our full analysis report here.

What Is The Market Telling Us
Alphabet’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 6 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 8 days ago when the stock gained 2.8% as investors' concerns about US-China trade tensions were eased by President Trump's more conciliatory tone over the weekend. Following a sharp market drop the previous trading day driven by trade conflict escalation, Wall Street's main indexes opened significantly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all saw gains of over 1%. The rebound was attributed to comments made by the President on social media, where he stated the "China situation will all be fine" and that the U.S. "wants to help China, not hurt it!!!" This shift in rhetoric prompted a return to risk assets, as traders brushed aside the previous week's fears. The rally ahead of the upcoming earnings season suggests that the "buy-the-dip" mentality remains strong among investors whenever trade jitters subside.

Alphabet is up 32.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $251.16 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $256.55 from October 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Alphabet’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $3,167.

所有跟帖: 

投资逻辑清晰,持仓策略稳健,只可惜两个我都没有,要不然也可以参与一下讨论了 -穆丹之乡- 给 穆丹之乡 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 15:52:37

哈!今天早上在007的贴里玩的时候,我做了上面的调整,我都不记得哪年哪月我用过market order了 -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (424 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 15:58:10

看来我胆子比你大,90%情况下都是头脑一热就市场价买入,性格使然啊!好在现在买入的都是比较抗打的公司,买高了也不怕,哈哈 -穆丹之乡- 给 穆丹之乡 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 16:14:33

胆子我肯定不比你小的。但在投资上我是一个守纪律的人LOL 穆丹,我建议你在个股里 -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (165 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 16:18:37

好吧,第一条无条件接受;第二条认真对待,怎么说呢,我其实现在已经改了好多了,以前都是围着垃圾股转的,结果吗,可想而知 -穆丹之乡- 给 穆丹之乡 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 16:26:58

不过有一说一,以前的经历就算交学费了,学到了哪些股票不能碰,需要要避免的,这算是坏事变好事吧 -穆丹之乡- 给 穆丹之乡 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 16:29:15

我想如果有人告诉你他投资从来没有亏过,你可以一笑而过。我也有过 -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (662 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 16:33:50

你这还好啦,我的几乎都是打几次骨折的,所以现在学乖了,没有了一夜暴富的想法,用真金白银领悟到那句话:选择比努力更重要 -穆丹之乡- 给 穆丹之乡 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 16:42:29

股市如此,人生又何尝不是呢,哈哈 -穆丹之乡- 给 穆丹之乡 发送悄悄话 (167 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 16:44:19

lol so true, I told my son that choosing a right marriage -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (334 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 16:48:32

赞活的通透而且智慧的美女辣妈! -穆丹之乡- 给 穆丹之乡 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:02:06

lol笑晕。朋友,朋友的朋友,这么些年一起走过,看多了经历过的,就悟出了 -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (173 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:07:08

嗯是滴,我们都应该珍惜现在所拥有的 -穆丹之乡- 给 穆丹之乡 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:22:50

是, 我家那位 -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (551 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 20:48:05

赞“选择比努力重要”!选择偏了,越努力亏得越多。 -我是一只井底蛙- 给 我是一只井底蛙 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 16:53:26

哈哈,蛙兄不仅智慧而且幽默LOL -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (224 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 16:55:56

蛙兄很谨慎智慧,不做期权不用margin, -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (133 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:04:19

总结的精辟! -穆丹之乡- 给 穆丹之乡 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:10:43

我也从来没有做过期权和margin. 说了或许你不信,我大本实习时还考了 -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (167 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:10:49

我就年初学期权的时候买了四个股票的leaps, beginner's luck, -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (188 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:17:00

聪明而又擅于思考的bog! -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (167 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:21:10

其实我是摔得起的,我有兜底的。 开个玩笑,哈哈哈。 但就是觉得做事情要讲长久之计, 不能只看眼前。 -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:39:58

LOL 其实对我来说是年轻时啥也没有时最摔得起,一把时光在前面,又没有什么 -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (319 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 18:19:47

同悟握手,是的,如果选对了赛道或方向,即使慢点,也会最终到达目的地的;反之,就会离目标越来越远 -穆丹之乡- 给 穆丹之乡 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:08:35

我完全同意你的观点,我们做任何事情都是一样的。只要选择了正确的方向或赛道,即使再慢我们也终会到达终点。 -雪尘- 给 雪尘 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 22:57:01

GOOG 比AMZN 更有活力! -Tianyazi- 给 Tianyazi 发送悄悄话 Tianyazi 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:15:03

明年就会倒过来 -Pilot007- 给 Pilot007 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:16:05

请说说你的分析呢? -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:22:42

田医生好!我对这几个competing peers 的排序是: -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (236 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:19:55

MTA GOOG 应该比AMZN 好,关税对AMZN 打击很大的。以前在AMZN 卖过旧书和镜头 -Tianyazi- 给 Tianyazi 发送悄悄话 Tianyazi 的博客首页 (42 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:33:13

10% on revenue? 那AMZN把用它网站做business 的小企业当作自己的franchisee了lol, -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (477 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:44:00

10% of sale price -Tianyazi- 给 Tianyazi 发送悄悄话 Tianyazi 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 18:20:53

so it's based on the revenue! Hefty! 田医生,不知你看到我留言里面的那段话没?我对 -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (114 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 18:28:25

not 10% of the profit, but the sale price -Tianyazi- 给 Tianyazi 发送悄悄话 Tianyazi 的博客首页 (250 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 19:05:07

Yes, sales price = revenue, profit = revenue- operation cost -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (173 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 19:15:54

Also bought a little GOOG around 246 today. -jliu6667- 给 jliu6667 发送悄悄话 (480 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:34:17

High five, my friend! Thanks for sharing the after market -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (251 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 17:49:17

Google没有问题,这些优质股跌了就是机会,特别是大跌的时候 -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 18:07:40

上次在我的一个贴里和jiliu6667坛友聊google, 我俩都是GOOG的大扇子,她或许比我的持股还多,因为她说她 -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (271 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 18:11:01

我也看到amazon,自己每年花好多钱的地方 -hvhp- 给 hvhp 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 18:55:36

不仅买家在他家花钱多,卖家也是。他们的A9 algorithm, 卖家们要争先恐后的付广告费把销量提上去, -bogbog- 给 bogbog 发送悄悄话 bogbog 的博客首页 (216 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 18:58:46

确实疫情期间改变了我们很多人的shopping habits,期待在AI这一战里 -晓炎- 给 晓炎 发送悄悄话 晓炎 的博客首页 (30 bytes) () 10/21/2025 postreply 19:00:21

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