Key Financials (Recent Results)
From Figma’s Q2 2025 (period ended June 30, 2025): Figma Investor Relations
| Metric | Value | YoY or Context |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | US$249.6 million | +41% vs Q2 2024 Figma Investor Relations |
| Operating income | US$2.1 million | Operating margin ~1% (GAAP) Figma Investor Relations |
| Non-GAAP operating income | US$11.5 million | Non-GAAP margin ~5% Figma Investor Relations |
| Net income | US$28.2 million | Includes some accounting/waterfall effects; non-GAAP net income is lower (~US$19.8m) Figma Investor Relations |
| Cash flow | Operating cash flow: ~US$62.5 million; adjusted free cash flow ~US$60.6 million | Cash flow margins ~25% / 24% respectively Figma Investor Relations |
| Customer metrics | ~11,906 customers with >US$10,000 ARR; ~1,119 customers with >US$100,000 ARR; Net Dollar Retention (NDR) ~129% for those >US$10K ARR Figma Investor Relations | |
| Balance sheet | Cash + cash equivalents + marketable securities ≈ US$1.6 billion as of June 30, 2025 Figma Investor Relations |
Guidance: Figma Investor Relations+2MarketWatch+2
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Q3 2025 revenue expected between US$263M–US$265M, implying ~33% YoY growth at midpoint. Figma Investor Relations+1
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For full fiscal year 2025, revenue guidance of US$1.021B–US$1.025B (~37% YoY growth at midpoint) Figma Investor Relations+1
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Non-GAAP operating income full year guidance: between US$88M–US$98M Figma Investor Relations
Growth Trends & Customer Dynamics
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Revenue growth has decelerated somewhat: Q1 had higher growth (≈46%), but in Q2 it dropped to ~41%. Guidance implies further moderation toward ~33%. TipRanks+2Seeking Alpha+2
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Net Dollar Retention (NDR) of ~129% for customers above US$10,000 ARR implies good “stickiness” and expansion among existing customers. Figma Investor Relations
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Increasing number of large customers: ~1,100+ customers spending >US$100,000 in ARR is up significantly YoY. This shows enterprise traction. Figma Investor Relations+1
Margins, Profitability & Cash Flow
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Gross margin remains high (~90% in the recent quarter) but management expects it to decline somewhat in the near term as they invest in AI infrastructure and related costs. MarketWatch+2Figma Investor Relations+2
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Operating margins: GAAP barely positive (~1%); on non-GAAP basis ~5%. Figma Investor Relations
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Free cash flow is strong relative to revenue: FCF margin ~24%. Strong cash generation is a plus for reinvestment, debt flexibility, etc. Figma Investor Relations
Valuation & Market Expectations
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Figma trades at a high multiple relative to sales and earnings estimates:
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Enterprise-Value / Sales (EV/Sales) multiple is cited around ~35x for recent periods. www.alphaspread.com+2MarketWatch+2
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Forward earnings multiples are very elevated: some sources say “nearly 200× earnings” based on yearly estimates. Barron's+1
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Return on Equity (ROE) is ~10.9% per some metrics; Net Margin approx ~11.6% per SimplyWallSt. Simply Wall St
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The valuation (vs peers) is seen by many analysts as a key risk: competitive set includes mature software companies that often trade at lower multiples. MarketWatch+1
? Key Risks & Concerns
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Decelerating Growth
While 41% YoY growth is strong, it’s down from past rates. Guidance for ~33% in Q3 and ~37% for full year suggest deceleration is expected. If growth slows more than that, market reaction could be negative. TipRanks+2Seeking Alpha+2 -
Margin Pressure, Especially from AI Costs
Investment in AI (model inference, infrastructure, R&D) is pushing costs up. Though margins are positive now, the near-term outlook is for compressed gross margins and perhaps more investment spending. AInvest+1 -
High Valuation Makes Expectations Tight
With such lofty multiples, there’s little room for misses. Analysts are pointing out that Figma is priced for near-perfect execution. Any miss (growth, margin, product rollout) could lead to sharp downside. Barron's+2Yahoo Finance+2 -
Competition & Market Saturation
Competing with Adobe, open source/free tools, and possibly new entrants (or existing large tech players moving in) can erode pricing, pressure margins, or increase CAPEX/R&D need. AInvest+1 -
Investor Sentiment & Stock Volatility
The stock has swung widely since IPO; strong upside initially, then rapid declines after earnings. The market is especially sensitive to guidance and any softness in growth or margins. MarketWatch+2TipRanks+2
Scenarios: Bull / Base / Bear
Here are plausible return / valuation trajectories under different assumptions. These are illustrative, not predictions.
| Scenario | Assumptions | Revenue Growth | Operating Margin (Non-GAAP) | Valuation Multiple (EV/Sales or P/E) | Implied Price / Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | Figma accelerates its product portfolio adoption; AI investments yield strong efficiency; large enterprise growth picks up; retains high net retention; margin compression is minimal | ~40-45% for next 2-3 quarters, then tapering to ~30% | ~6-8% non-GAAP operating margin, improving to ~10% | EV/Sales ~30-35× forward, or P/E in triple digits but justified by growth | Possibly $80-$100+ within 12-18 months, if all else goes well |
| Base | Figma delivers as guided; growth slows modestly; margin pressure from AI & infrastructure; competition remains steady; accounts with high spend continue expanding | ~33-37% next few quarters, then gradually down toward ~25-30% | Non-GAAP operating margin ~5-7%; modest improvement over time | EV/Sales ~25-30× forward; P/E relatively high (100-150×) but with risk premium | Price maybe $60-$80 depending on market multiples and sentiment |
| Bear | Growth drops faster than expected; AI costs more than expected; competition eats into pricing or customer acquisition; margin compression; macro headwinds (slowing enterprise spending) | Growth slides toward ~20-25% over next 1-2 years | Operating margins decline or stay flat; maybe even revert to small losses if scale investments escalate |
