这个是AI分析的，你看看

来源: 于 2025-09-20 17:57:30 [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读：次

Key Financials (Recent Results)

From Figma’s Q2 2025 (period ended June 30, 2025): Figma Investor Relations

Metric Value YoY or Context
Revenue US$249.6 million +41% vs Q2 2024 Figma Investor Relations
Operating income US$2.1 million Operating margin ~1% (GAAP) Figma Investor Relations
Non-GAAP operating income US$11.5 million Non-GAAP margin ~5% Figma Investor Relations
Net income US$28.2 million Includes some accounting/waterfall effects; non-GAAP net income is lower (~US$19.8m) Figma Investor Relations
Cash flow Operating cash flow: ~US$62.5 million; adjusted free cash flow ~US$60.6 million Cash flow margins ~25% / 24% respectively Figma Investor Relations
Customer metrics ~11,906 customers with >US$10,000 ARR; ~1,119 customers with >US$100,000 ARR; Net Dollar Retention (NDR) ~129% for those >US$10K ARR Figma Investor Relations  
Balance sheet Cash + cash equivalents + marketable securities ≈ US$1.6 billion as of June 30, 2025 Figma Investor Relations  

Guidance: Figma Investor Relations+2MarketWatch+2

Growth Trends & Customer Dynamics

  • Revenue growth has decelerated somewhat: Q1 had higher growth (≈46%), but in Q2 it dropped to ~41%. Guidance implies further moderation toward ~33%. TipRanks+2Seeking Alpha+2

  • Net Dollar Retention (NDR) of ~129% for customers above US$10,000 ARR implies good “stickiness” and expansion among existing customers. Figma Investor Relations

  • Increasing number of large customers: ~1,100+ customers spending >US$100,000 in ARR is up significantly YoY. This shows enterprise traction. Figma Investor Relations+1

Margins, Profitability & Cash Flow

  • Gross margin remains high (~90% in the recent quarter) but management expects it to decline somewhat in the near term as they invest in AI infrastructure and related costs. MarketWatch+2Figma Investor Relations+2

  • Operating margins: GAAP barely positive (~1%); on non-GAAP basis ~5%. Figma Investor Relations

  • Free cash flow is strong relative to revenue: FCF margin ~24%. Strong cash generation is a plus for reinvestment, debt flexibility, etc. Figma Investor Relations

Valuation & Market Expectations

  • Figma trades at a high multiple relative to sales and earnings estimates:

    • Enterprise-Value / Sales (EV/Sales) multiple is cited around ~35x for recent periods. www.alphaspread.com+2MarketWatch+2

    • Forward earnings multiples are very elevated: some sources say “nearly 200× earnings” based on yearly estimates. Barron's+1

  • Return on Equity (ROE) is ~10.9% per some metrics; Net Margin approx ~11.6% per SimplyWallSt. Simply Wall St

  • The valuation (vs peers) is seen by many analysts as a key risk: competitive set includes mature software companies that often trade at lower multiples. MarketWatch+1

? Key Risks & Concerns

  1. Decelerating Growth
    While 41% YoY growth is strong, it’s down from past rates. Guidance for ~33% in Q3 and ~37% for full year suggest deceleration is expected. If growth slows more than that, market reaction could be negative. TipRanks+2Seeking Alpha+2

  2. Margin Pressure, Especially from AI Costs
    Investment in AI (model inference, infrastructure, R&D) is pushing costs up. Though margins are positive now, the near-term outlook is for compressed gross margins and perhaps more investment spending. AInvest+1

  3. High Valuation Makes Expectations Tight
    With such lofty multiples, there’s little room for misses. Analysts are pointing out that Figma is priced for near-perfect execution. Any miss (growth, margin, product rollout) could lead to sharp downside. Barron's+2Yahoo Finance+2

  4. Competition & Market Saturation
    Competing with Adobe, open source/free tools, and possibly new entrants (or existing large tech players moving in) can erode pricing, pressure margins, or increase CAPEX/R&D need. AInvest+1

  5. Investor Sentiment & Stock Volatility
    The stock has swung widely since IPO; strong upside initially, then rapid declines after earnings. The market is especially sensitive to guidance and any softness in growth or margins. MarketWatch+2TipRanks+2

Scenarios: Bull / Base / Bear

Here are plausible return / valuation trajectories under different assumptions. These are illustrative, not predictions.

Scenario Assumptions Revenue Growth Operating Margin (Non-GAAP) Valuation Multiple (EV/Sales or P/E) Implied Price / Return
Bull Figma accelerates its product portfolio adoption; AI investments yield strong efficiency; large enterprise growth picks up; retains high net retention; margin compression is minimal ~40-45% for next 2-3 quarters, then tapering to ~30% ~6-8% non-GAAP operating margin, improving to ~10% EV/Sales ~30-35× forward, or P/E in triple digits but justified by growth Possibly $80-$100+ within 12-18 months, if all else goes well
Base Figma delivers as guided; growth slows modestly; margin pressure from AI & infrastructure; competition remains steady; accounts with high spend continue expanding ~33-37% next few quarters, then gradually down toward ~25-30% Non-GAAP operating margin ~5-7%; modest improvement over time EV/Sales ~25-30× forward; P/E relatively high (100-150×) but with risk premium Price maybe $60-$80 depending on market multiples and sentiment
Bear Growth drops faster than expected; AI costs more than expected; competition eats into pricing or customer acquisition; margin compression; macro headwinds (slowing enterprise spending) Growth slides toward ~20-25% over next 1-2 years Operating margins decline or stay flat; maybe even revert to small losses if scale investments escalate