As of mid-May 2026, the chances of OpenAI winning or not losing its trial against Elon Musk appear to be high, with prediction markets signaling a significant shift in favor of OpenAI over the course of the proceedings.
- Shrinking Odds for Musk: Prediction market traders on Kalshi estimated Elon Musk's probability of success in his lawsuit against OpenAI at approximately 34% to 40% as of May 6, 2026, dropping from a 60% chance when the trial began.
- Stronger Position for OpenAI: Analysts and those observing the trial, such as reports from Ars Technica and CNBC, indicate that OpenAI's legal team successfully characterized the lawsuit as "sour grapes" and argued that the company's restructure from a nonprofit was not fraudulent.
- Dismissed Claims: A significant portion of the case was already weakened when the judge dismissed Musk's fraud claims last month.
- Evidence Issues: The case is now focusing on breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment, relying on emails and public statements rather than a signed contract, which legal observers consider a harder case for Musk to prove.
The trial concluded its third week on May 14, 2026, with closing arguments, and a ruling on liability is expected soon. If OpenAI wins, they avoid the potential requirement to unwind their for-profit structure and avoid a massive payout demand of over $130 billion, securing their planned 2026 IPO.
