三人行必有我师： CRCL股价分析（1）
注：最后的结论可能在今天讨论以后改变，如有改变，我会写个简单的CRCL分析（2）
昨晚我在狮山的一个贴里半开玩笑半认真地说：“我准备对CRCL下重手，现在仓位太小，price @105”.
薄少帅以他一贯四两拨千斤的方式回复我：“多重？往死里整那种？ 我对 CRCL 盈利能力有怀疑…. CRCL靠短期债劵的利息挣钱, this set up the ceiling of their profit“.
三心接着善意提醒我：“CRCL 要当心。 USDC circulation growth has slowed down significantly in Q4. It grew from 61M to 74M in Q3, 20% growth. But now, in Q4, it has barely moved, currently at 75M. CRCL could miss its earning if USDC stays at this level in Q4”.
狮山以他严谨的态度认真道： “今年3月份60B, 11月初75B, growth在一个高的base下确实slow down但是USDC is outpacing Tether's USDT in on-chain activity and growth in market capitalization. … JPMorgan analysts reported that USDC is outpacing Tether's USDT in on-chain activity and growth in market capitalization (72% increase for USDC vs. 32% for USDT in a specific period leading up to late October 2025). “
我读了他们三位的高见后，心想，下一步我该做什么呢？How to make my decision based on the information I got? 于是决定先认真做个作业吧，把他们仨的观点综合起来，想清楚后先。CRCL是前不久刚刚IPO的公司，我没有数据做详细的FA，于是决定请教Grok AI, 然后把AI的分析和建议整理出来，也把我的想法分享于此，期望能大家探讨！请一定不要不响，闷声不响的人是发不了大财的，根据我的经验LOL
1， 分析薄少帅的inputs，我请教Grok AI: How does CRCL generate its revenue, and what are the factors that set up its ceiling of profit?
答案-1: CRCL是怎样赚钱的——
a) interest income on reserves (75-80% of total revenue): USDC, a stablecoin created by CRCL is always pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, and every USDC in circulation is backed by real USD cash or short-term US Treasuries held in regulated banks.
b) Transaction and service fees (15-20% of total revenue): fees from processing payments, transfers, and settlements via CRCL’s APIs, wallets and payment rails.
c) Other (5% of total revenue) which includes partnerships such as rev-sharing with exchanges like Coinbase where CRCL co-manages USDC; yield-generating products like institutional lending and emerging services in tokenized assets; and minimal from direct crypto trading or investments
答案-2: 哪些是影响CRCL赚钱的因素——
a) Interest rate (primary ceiling): 80% of revenue is rate sensitive. Profits peak when short-term rates are high (5%+ yields on T-bills) but compress if the Fed cuts rates. A 1% rate drop could shave 15-20% off annual profits.
b) USDC circulation growth limits: revenue scales with USDC supply but adoption is capped by competition from USDT (Tether) and emerging stablecoins; crypto market volatility and regulatory hurdles.
c) Operational and compliance costs: high fixed costs (40% of revenue) for audits, legal and tech infrastructure to maintain; margin squeezed by R&D; and economic & geopolitical factors such as crypto winter or recession….
我的总结（bottom line） —— there are only 3 ways for the ceiling moves： (1) higher short-term rates, (2) higher USDC circulation growth, and (3) lower operating expenses。第一条不乐观，从现在的迹象看降息是大势所趋；第二条请看三心和狮山下面的说法；第三条，降低Opex至少现阶段没指望。
2， 分析三心的inputs，我请教Grok AI: Is the following statement correct: “USDC circulation growth has slowed down significantly in Q4. It grew from 61M to 74M in Q3, 20% growth. But now, in Q4, it has barely moved, currently at 75M. CRCL could miss its earning if USDC stays at this level in Q4”?
答案如下：Yes, the statement was spot-on and backed by real-time data——
a) Q3 2025 $61B (start) to $74B (end), 7% monthly growth; Q4 (Oct 2025) $74B (start) to $76B (end), 2.5% monthly growth; and it dropped 4.5%
b) From 7% to 4.5%, this is a more than 50% dropped!
我的总结（bottom line）—— Q4 growth may suck, at least at this point, unless it catches up in the next 2 months! If USDC’s circulation growth keeps at this pace, CRCL will miss its circulation guidance by miles and its Q1 2026 earnings will be ugly! 三心的提醒切中要点，USDC circulation growth 不容乐观！
3， 分析狮山的inputs，我请教Grok AI: Ok, in this case (based on Question#2), how do you rationalize the following statement: the USDC monthly growth based on $74B is a higher bar comparing to $61B, yes, it did slow down. However, JPMorgan analysts reported that USDC is outpacing Tether's USDT in on-chain activity and growth in market capitalization (72% increase for USDC vs. 32% for USDT in a specific period leading up to late October 2025), and with this in mind, what do you expect CRCL’s stock price for the next 3-6 months?
答案如下：perfect question, you just asked the exact thing every hedge-fund manager is whispering right now.
a) Short answer, 72% vs 32% is real and Q4 slowdown is also real.
b) Tho while “slow-down” and “out-pacing USDT” are the same movie, yet different frames. The JPM’s 72% (USDC) vs 32% (USDT) is 100% correct and 100% irrelevant for USDC’s Q4 earnings.
c) The worst and the best cases:
- P10 (worst): 50 bps cut causes circulation flat at $76B. Assume investors will take 28x PE and stock price around $65
- P50 (natural): 25 bps cut causes circulation increasing to $80B. Assume investors will take 35x PE and stock price around $118
- P90 (best): 25 bps cut + Trump’s Crypto Bills, causes circulation increasing to $85B. Assume investors will take 38x PE and stock price around $140
Grok AI 的建议——
(1) stay in cash (or stay put at a small position like my $105/per),
(2) on December 15, check Circle’s homepage for “Dec mints”, then make your move for the next 3 months (momentum trading).
我的推理和决定——
（1） 从短线的角度来看，最好的情况下明年Q1 CRCL的股价可以达到$140左右，但我不做短线
（2） 从长远来看，我暂时看不到CRCL有更大的发展空间（尤其是circulation growth这一块）和更强的挣钱能力, 我决定在现有价格卖出CRCL, 把这部分资金投资到更好的公司上。
