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www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/09/09/climate-majority-of-fossil-fuels-need-to-stay-underground-study-says.html

Majority of fossil fuels need to stay underground to avert climate disaster, scientists say
KEY POINTS
The vast majority of the world's known fossil fuel reserves must be kept in the ground to have even a 50% chance of keeping global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The study estimated that oil and gas production must decline worldwide by 3% each year through to 2050, implying that most regions must reach peak production now or during the next decade.
The findings reaffirm the yawning gap between meaningful climate action and the rhetoric of policymakers and business leaders touting their commitment to a so-called "energy transition."
GP: Athabasca Oil Sands 090921 EU
A heavy hauler truck drives through the Suncor Energy Inc. Millennium mine in this aerial photograph taken above the Athabasca oil sands near Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, on Monday, Sept. 10, 2018.
Ben Nelms | Bloomberg | Getty Images
LONDON — The vast majority of the world's known fossil fuel reserves must be kept in the ground to have some hope of preventing the worst effects of the climate emergency, according to new research.

The peer-reviewed study, published in the scientific journal Nature on Wednesday, found that 90% of coal must remain unextracted and nearly 60% of oil and fossil methane gas must stay underground to have even a 50% chance of keeping global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.


This temperature threshold is the lower target of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, an accord widely recognized as critically important to avoid an irreversible climate crisis. The 1.5 degrees Celsius level is particularly crucial because beyond this internationally agreed goal, so-called tipping points become more likely.

The study estimated that oil and gas production must decline worldwide by 3% each year through to 2050, implying that most regions must reach peak production now or during the next decade.

Countries that are heavily reliant on oil and gas for state revenues, such as OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, are thought to be at particularly high risk unless they rapidly diversify their economies.

The researchers, led by environmental and energy economist Dan Welsby at University College London, noted the "bleak" forecasts were likely to be somewhat conservative given that a greater than 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees would require more carbon to remain untapped, and because of uncertainties around the timely development of scalable negative carbon emission technologies.

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