房地产的末日今年下半年就会来临

来源: bombyx 于 2020-05-31 09:06:00 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 阅读数 : (1447 bytes)

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Housing in cyclical markets is about to be destroyed:
1. Mortgage delinquency rates have already surpassed 2008, in fact they're double.
2. Unemployment is double the great recession and will exceed great depression levels.
3. The vast majority of increases to housing prices have been 40 years of decreasing interest rates (no longer possible).
4. Lending has tightened greatly and will likely to continue to do so as delinquencies across all asset classes rise.
5. Largest debt in history surpassing even the great financial crisis and spread across all debt classes.
6. Nearly 70 percent of Americans have less than $1,000 stashed away.
7. We have yet to have a major financial failure putting potentially trillions in derivatives at risk.
8. Remote working arrangements will allow people to move out of expensive city centers. My family is now looking at rural land and moving out of Arizona to a lower tax low cost of living state.
9. The Case Shiller Index is at historic highs (grotesquely overvalued). 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences showing that asset prices ALWAYS return to their 100 index level. Many cities are at 200+
10. ALL of this is taking place with RECORD stimulus, in fact, many people are making more than when they were employed AND they're not having to pay rent or mortgages. Imagine the carnage when this assuredly and eventually ends.

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