哈哈哈，糊涂兄给你看HM写的

I’ve also mentioned the challenge presented by the fact that there’s no such thing as knowing what future developments will be.  This is the paradox we must deal with.

 

To follow Lipsitch’s analysis, in our world of investing:

 

• there are few if any facts regarding the future,
• the vast majority of our theorizing about the future consists of extrapolating from past patterns, and
• a lot of that extrapolation – and just about all the rest of our conclusions – consists of what Lipsitch calls opinion or speculation and what I call guesswork. (George Bernard Shaw said, “All professions are conspiracies against the laity.” Thus the rules of the investment profession seem to require that its members describe their views about the future using high-sounding terms like “analysis,” “assessment,” “projection,” “prediction” and “forecast.” Rarely do we see the word “guess.”)

 

所有跟帖： 

• 他讲的没错！每个人都可以有自己对股市的看法，但是像高盛那样，有些下流！我在交易台上时，经常戳穿他们的把戏！ -hhtt- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/18/2020 postreply 07:05:14

• 很有正能量！这个要点赞。 -retire_50- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/18/2020 postreply 14:40:32

• 你终于来了。还以为你戒网了，哈哈 -清水胜浓茶- ♀ (0 bytes) () 05/11/2020 postreply 14:25:44