这个值得渎一下

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/24/ride-out-the-bull-market-until-these-three-major-recession-indicators.html

 

Here's what Mark Tepper, president and CEO of Strategic Wealth Partners, told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Thursday.

— The first indicator is an inverted yield curve. This correctly predicted the last seven recessions since 1968. It typically "flashes red" by inverting 12 months before the beginning of a recession. Right now the yield curve is pretty flat, but not yet inverted.

 

— Second, is the year-over-year change of the Leading Economic Index, which predicts future global economic movements. When it contracts, a recession usually follows. Currently, the index is still growing at 5 percent year over year, so there's no immediate need for concern.

— Last is the tightening of monetary policy. Although the Fed is intent on raising rates, policy tightening shouldn't be expected for at least another year.

Put all three indicators together and they have correctly predicted the last seven recessions with not a single false positive. At this point, there still appears to be one year of runway before these three red flags hit stocks. When the convergence happens, switch your position to underweight stocks, but right now maintain your stock portfolios and ride out the rest of this bull market.

 

砖家叫兽说股市还能牛一些日子

所有跟帖： 

• 这个观察是否有用：07年fed fund rate 5,mortgage 30y 6.66; 现在1.75， 5。 -IEbird- ♀ (0 bytes) () 08/24/2018 postreply 14:12:07

• 1.invert後要等一到兩年。2.这領先指数是六个月。3。现在是否中埸休息。 -big_canon- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/24/2018 postreply 14:34:20

• 4.看畢非特。畢非特在南加橙県Laguna Beach 在賣的房，今天減價30%到7.9米。南加房市快要崩盘？ -big_canon- ♂ (174 bytes) () 08/24/2018 postreply 14:39:12

• 聽說畢非特還有一間平宜点用作客居的在同一社区内。去年賣了。 -big_canon- ♂ (0 bytes) () 08/24/2018 postreply 17:19:13