回归regression, 是自然界的一个普遍现象,也是包括投资在内的人类活动的普遍现象。有空查了几个美西华人比较熟悉的城市。以平均而言,有无规律?
数据来源zillow
in $1000 | peak | bottom | Change | ||||
2007 | 2012 | 2016 | from2007 | from 2012 | 2016 | 2017 | |
mountain view | 823 | 729 | 1460 | 77% | 100% | 2.7% | 0.1% |
palo alto | 1320 | 1200 | 2500 | 89% | 108% | -1.1% | -0.7% |
san francisco | 830 | 658 | 1150 | 39% | 75% | 1.3% | -0.3% |
san jose | 697 | 490 | 882 | 27% | 80% | 4.7% | 0.4% |
arcadia | 800 | 769 | 1140 | 43% | 48% | -3.1% | -1.0% |
san marino | 1520 | 1380 | 2360 | 55% | 71% | 7.0% | 2.1% |
seattle | 468 | 355 | 608 | 30% | 71% | 13.0% | 5.9% |
denver | 226 | 211 | 367 | 62% | 74% | 9.0% | 3.9% |
las vegas | 292 | 110 | 206 | -29% | 87% | 9.3% | 5.0% |
我投资的主要地区最后三个数据是这样的。看来还可以持几年。
87% | 11.0% | 6.5% |