07-09年房产大跌时租金到底也跟着跌了吗？

来源: commonsense888 于 2016-08-23 22:57:41 [档案] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读：次 (4934 bytes)

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最近有不少讨论房地产投资风险的。有人认为经济变坏或象08年那样的地产泡沫破裂，屋主失去房子，投资者买进房子，出租房增多，另外，租房者为节约开支与父母或朋友合住，需求减少，房租会相应下降，影响地主的现金流，过高的负责率，严重的负现金流会导致破产。

也有人认为地产泡沫破裂，许多人失去房子，从屋主变成租客，推高了租房市场。

那么，07-09年房产大跌时租金到底也跟着跌了吗？

联储会的数据表明，07-09房价大跌时，房租并没有同时下跌。当然这是全美的数据，有可能有些地区会是例外。

Here is a graph, courtesy of the Federal Reserve Economic Data website, that shows median sales prices of existing homes vs. CPI of rent for the last 10 years. You will notice that rents continued to rise during the 2007-2009 downturn.

Notice that rents declined slightly at the end of the recession in 2009 (shaded area). So it would appear that rental rates are correlated most closely with incomes. The effects on rental prices of the decrease in incomes were not felt until a few years after the recession started (lagging).

There was no corresponding decrease in rents during the massive decrease in housing prices in 2008-2009, so it appears rental prices do not appear to be closely correlated with the sales prices of existing homes.