最近拿到个商贷，利息有两个选择

都是五年的气球贷款。一种是4%adjustable rate for first year, adjusted annually; prime +0.75; the othe choice is fixed rate 4.875%, 银行说五年后还可以按这个利率renew。总贷款期限20年， 贷款额500款。现在拿不定主意选哪种利息比较好。还有一点银行说没有prepay penalty.所以不知道值不值得冒把险选4%的。各位大佬们请给点建议吧。主要是对下几年的利率走向怎么看？

所有跟帖： 

• 现在市场普遍认为要涨息。美联储也放了话。能20年固定利息对我简直是做梦了。 -老农民说两句- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/08/2015 postreply 11:07:29

• what did Fed say about interest rate exactly? -gqc- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/08/2015 postreply 12:18:56

• prime停滞在3.0已经好几年了。到4.0经过4个加息cycle？但adjust本金确实还的快。是否 -IEbird- ♀ (63 bytes) () 04/08/2015 postreply 12:04:08

• renew in five years but he said if I chose the adjustable it wil -gqc- ♀ (295 bytes) () 04/08/2015 postreply 12:18:07

• if stay in adjustable, 3-4 y risk is manageable in my opinion, -IEbird- ♀ (81 bytes) () 04/08/2015 postreply 12:34:52

• so I should take the 20 year fixed rate then? especially when th -gqc- ♀ (20 bytes) () 04/08/2015 postreply 12:45:34

• If you have good project, use money wisely. compare with no -IEbird- ♀ (43 bytes) () 04/08/2015 postreply 12:50:53

• 至少我现在是打算长期持有这个物业的。开始肯定负现金流 -gqc- ♀ (24 bytes) () 04/08/2015 postreply 15:10:08